Brent Oil - Golden crossover confirmed, but....

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
Resistance – 47.99, 48.26, 50.00

Support – 47.54, 46.74, 46.16

Daily chart – Possible double top formation, ‘Golden crossover’

  • Brent’s positive move yesterday confirmed the golden crossover – bullish crossover between daily 50-SMA and 200-SMA. Usually a laggard indicator, this time it may be different, given we are coming off from an oil             price crash.
  • But…prices are struggling to take out latest cyclical high of $48.26 (Apr 29 high). Furthermore, prices also failed to see a daily closing above $47.99 (23.6% Fibo of June 2014 high-Jan 2016 low).
  • This coupled with the daily RSI , which is still well below its cyclical high, tells the recipe is in place for a double top /bearish price RSI divergence.
  • Consequently, a repeated failure near $47.99 could shift risk in favor of a drop to rising trend line support currently seen around $43.30 ( double top neckline).
  • Only a convincing daily close above $47.99 would add credence to ‘golden crossover’ and create room for further upside.
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