step_ahead_ofthemarket

Yield curve inversion=>Projecting a recession in 3-5 quarters

Short
TVC:US03MY   US GOVERNMENT BONDS 3 MO YIELD
1. MACD cross=> any rate drop in the FED rate may help boost stocks in the short-term, but it will further decrease the yields on 5-10 years
2. Empirical research: 3 month to 5/10 year yield Inversion is quite a successful binary predictor for recessions occurring 3-5 quarters in the future.
3. Initial inversion occurred March 2019 on the 3 month to 5(orange line) year T.Bonds yields=> Increasing the probability of a recession for Q1 2020-Q3 2020.

Comments

Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar About Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter