Nasdaq Long As I said 1 month ago NQ100 Will Go to 22000
Trend Bullish
P above vwap yearly
Maket profile shiftig higher
POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to)....
And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices....
FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya.
The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals...
This lesson was hard but it was worth it:
The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend.
And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs.
The reality is:
The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated.
What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real?
Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone.
The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues...
Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading.
What to do:
I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile.
It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons...
Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading.
On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances...
Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only.
Back to Nasdaq:
Inflation cools down
Oil down
DXY down
Higher Highs Higher Lows
Higher POC
Volatility of VIX down(Risk down)
RSI long term above 50
Stochastic bullish
The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one.
Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION!
Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it.
What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless.
Power to Traders.
Good Trades and Good profits.
Dave
P above vwap yearly
Maket profile shiftig higher
POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to)....
And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices....
FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya.
The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals...
This lesson was hard but it was worth it:
The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend.
And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs.
The reality is:
The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated.
What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real?
Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone.
The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues...
Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading.
What to do:
I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile.
It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons...
Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading.
On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances...
Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only.
Back to Nasdaq:
Inflation cools down
Oil down
DXY down
Higher Highs Higher Lows
Higher POC
Volatility of VIX down(Risk down)
RSI long term above 50
Stochastic bullish
The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one.
Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION!
Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it.
What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless.
Power to Traders.
Good Trades and Good profits.
Dave
Comment:
All major US stock indexes finished higher on Tuesday, at the levels not seen since early April 2022, boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings results from some of the country’s top lenders and a rally in AI-linked stocks. The Dow Jones soared over 360 points or 1%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% each. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged 6.4% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added 4.1% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped 4.4% after an earnings beat and Charles Schwab jumped 12.5% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Microsoft shares rose 3.9%, hitting all-time high of $366.78 during the session after announcing a new AI subscription service for Microsoft 365. On the losing end, Masimo tumbled 20% after the medical equipment maker said it expects to report weaker-than-expected revenue for the spring quarter.
Comment:
All major US stock indexes finished higher on Tuesday, at the levels not seen since early April 2022, boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings results from some of the country’s top lenders and a rally in AI-linked stocks. The Dow Jones soared over 360 points or 1%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% each. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged 6.4% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added 4.1% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped 4.4% after an earnings beat and Charles Schwab jumped 12.5% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Microsoft shares rose 3.9%, hitting all-time high of $366.78 during the session after announcing a new AI subscription service for Microsoft 365. On the losing end, Masimo tumbled 20% after the medical equipment maker said it expects to report weaker-than-expected revenue for the spring quarter.
Comment:
European Shares Rise on Tuesday
European equity markets rose on Tuesday, with the German DAX up 0.4% and the Stoxx 600 up 0.7% led by the chemicals sector including German chemicals giant BASF which rose by over 3%. Ocado was among the best performers, up nearly 20%, after reporting a return to underlying profit in its first half. In other corporate news, Swiss drugmaker Novartis raised its full-year earnings guidance, while Swedish bank SEB reported a second-quarter operating profit that exceeded market expectations. On the other hand, Tele2 dropped more than 10% due to lower-than-expected second-quarter profit. Investors await updated inflation figures from both the UK and the Euro Area, which are due on Wednesday. Additionally, comments made by ECB policymakers Nagel and Knot have raised doubts about whether an interest rate hike in September will be implemented.
European equity markets rose on Tuesday, with the German DAX up 0.4% and the Stoxx 600 up 0.7% led by the chemicals sector including German chemicals giant BASF which rose by over 3%. Ocado was among the best performers, up nearly 20%, after reporting a return to underlying profit in its first half. In other corporate news, Swiss drugmaker Novartis raised its full-year earnings guidance, while Swedish bank SEB reported a second-quarter operating profit that exceeded market expectations. On the other hand, Tele2 dropped more than 10% due to lower-than-expected second-quarter profit. Investors await updated inflation figures from both the UK and the Euro Area, which are due on Wednesday. Additionally, comments made by ECB policymakers Nagel and Knot have raised doubts about whether an interest rate hike in September will be implemented.
Comment:
Italian Stocks Up 0.34% on Tuesday
The FTSE MIB index bounced back from a negative start and closed 0.34% higher at 28,707, in line with other European markets after remarks from ECB council member Klaas Knot raised hopes that the central bank might soon halt their series of interest-rate hikes. ECB official Knot said that monetary tightening beyond next week’s European Central Bank meeting is anything but guaranteed. During the day, some of the top-performing stocks included Banca Mediolanum (+2.18%), Leonardo (+2.16%), and Diasorin (+2%). On the flip side, the shares of Moncler (-1.41%) and Ferrari (-1.06%) had the weakest performance among the companies listed on the index.
The FTSE MIB index bounced back from a negative start and closed 0.34% higher at 28,707, in line with other European markets after remarks from ECB council member Klaas Knot raised hopes that the central bank might soon halt their series of interest-rate hikes. ECB official Knot said that monetary tightening beyond next week’s European Central Bank meeting is anything but guaranteed. During the day, some of the top-performing stocks included Banca Mediolanum (+2.18%), Leonardo (+2.16%), and Diasorin (+2%). On the flip side, the shares of Moncler (-1.41%) and Ferrari (-1.06%) had the weakest performance among the companies listed on the index.
Comment:
UK Shares Rise Led by Ocado
The FTSE 100 added 0.6% to 7,454 on Tuesday, led by a 19% surge in Ocado after the grocery retailer returned to profit in H1 and kept its financial guidance for the year. Also, homebuilders advanced nearly 4%, the most in five months on hopes that interest rates will peak sooner than anticipated. Investors await CPI figures that are expected to show a decline in annual inflation to 8.2% in June while the core index is likely to remain at its highest level since March 1992.
The FTSE 100 added 0.6% to 7,454 on Tuesday, led by a 19% surge in Ocado after the grocery retailer returned to profit in H1 and kept its financial guidance for the year. Also, homebuilders advanced nearly 4%, the most in five months on hopes that interest rates will peak sooner than anticipated. Investors await CPI figures that are expected to show a decline in annual inflation to 8.2% in June while the core index is likely to remain at its highest level since March 1992.
Comment:
US Stocks Rise on Upbeat Earnings
All three major US stock indexes rose on Tuesday afternoon, the levels not seen since April last year as stronger-than-expected earnings results from some of the country’s top lenders boosted sentiments. The Dow Jones soared over 350 points to 34959, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 1% respectively. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged more than 6% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added almost 4% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped about 4.2% after posting a 20% surge in second-quarter profit and Charles Schwab jumped more than 12% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Also, stocks of PNC Financials rebounded from early losses to gain almost 2% after reporting mixed figures for the second quarter. On the other hand, shares of Lockheed Martin cut early gains to fall about 3.2% although the company's earnings beat forecasts.
All three major US stock indexes rose on Tuesday afternoon, the levels not seen since April last year as stronger-than-expected earnings results from some of the country’s top lenders boosted sentiments. The Dow Jones soared over 350 points to 34959, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 1% respectively. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged more than 6% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added almost 4% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped about 4.2% after posting a 20% surge in second-quarter profit and Charles Schwab jumped more than 12% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Also, stocks of PNC Financials rebounded from early losses to gain almost 2% after reporting mixed figures for the second quarter. On the other hand, shares of Lockheed Martin cut early gains to fall about 3.2% although the company's earnings beat forecasts.
Comment:
Stocks in Canada Hit 8-week High
Comment:
Stocks in Canada Hit 8-week High
Comment:
AT&T Hits All-time Low
Comment:
Dow Jumps Around 400 Points
The Dow Jones surged about 400 points to 34959 on Tuesday, a level not seen since April of 2022, and the S&P 500 gained about 0.4% to 4542, back to levels not seen since April last year, as traders digest fresh corporate results. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged more than 6% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added almost 5% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped about 4.7% after an earnings beat and Charles Schwab jumped more than 12% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Also, stocks of PNC Financials rebounded from early losses to gain almost 4% after reporting mixed figures for the second quarter. Meanwhile, a nearly 5% surge in Verizon shares also helped the Dow's surge. On the other hand, shares of Lockheed Martin cut early gains to fall about 0.8% although the company's earnings beat forecasts. The Nasdaq lost almost 0.2%, as tech shares were in the red.
The Dow Jones surged about 400 points to 34959 on Tuesday, a level not seen since April of 2022, and the S&P 500 gained about 0.4% to 4542, back to levels not seen since April last year, as traders digest fresh corporate results. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged more than 6% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added almost 5% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped about 4.7% after an earnings beat and Charles Schwab jumped more than 12% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Also, stocks of PNC Financials rebounded from early losses to gain almost 4% after reporting mixed figures for the second quarter. Meanwhile, a nearly 5% surge in Verizon shares also helped the Dow's surge. On the other hand, shares of Lockheed Martin cut early gains to fall about 0.8% although the company's earnings beat forecasts. The Nasdaq lost almost 0.2%, as tech shares were in the red.
Comment:
Microsoft Hits All-time High
Comment:
US Business Inventories Rise 0.2% in May
Total business inventories in the United States rose by 0.2 percent from the previous month in May 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent increase in April. Stocks at retailers were up by 0.7 percent (compared to 0.3 percent in April), while those at merchant wholesalers remained unchanged (compared to -0.3 percent). On the other hand, inventories at manufacturers declined by 0.2 percent (compared to 0.3 percent). On a yearly basis, business inventories rose by 3.5 percent in May.
Total business inventories in the United States rose by 0.2 percent from the previous month in May 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent increase in April. Stocks at retailers were up by 0.7 percent (compared to 0.3 percent in April), while those at merchant wholesalers remained unchanged (compared to -0.3 percent). On the other hand, inventories at manufacturers declined by 0.2 percent (compared to 0.3 percent). On a yearly basis, business inventories rose by 3.5 percent in May.
Comment:
US Retail Sales Rise Less than Expected
Retail sales in the US rose 0.2% month-over-month in June of 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in May, but below forecasts of a 0.5% rise. Increases were seen in sales at miscellaneous store retailers (2%); nonstore retailers (1.9%); furniture (1.4%); electronic and appliances (1.1%); clothing (0.6%); motor vehicle and part dealers (0.3%); and food services and drinking places (0.1%). On the other hand, falls were seen in sales at gasoline stations (-1.4%); building materials and garden equipment (-1.2%); sporting goods, hobby, musical and books (-1%); food and beverages stores (-0.7%); health and personal care stores (-0.1%); and general merchandise stores (-0.1%). The so-called core retail sales which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.6%. Retail sales data continued to signal consumer spending remains resilient, with inflation falling to two-year lows in June. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation.
Retail sales in the US rose 0.2% month-over-month in June of 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in May, but below forecasts of a 0.5% rise. Increases were seen in sales at miscellaneous store retailers (2%); nonstore retailers (1.9%); furniture (1.4%); electronic and appliances (1.1%); clothing (0.6%); motor vehicle and part dealers (0.3%); and food services and drinking places (0.1%). On the other hand, falls were seen in sales at gasoline stations (-1.4%); building materials and garden equipment (-1.2%); sporting goods, hobby, musical and books (-1%); food and beverages stores (-0.7%); health and personal care stores (-0.1%); and general merchandise stores (-0.1%). The so-called core retail sales which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.6%. Retail sales data continued to signal consumer spending remains resilient, with inflation falling to two-year lows in June. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation.
Comment:
Government Bond Yields Fall for 2nd Session
Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
Comment:
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Comment:
Annual inflation down to 5.5% in the euro area
Comment:
Japan will release some key data over the coming days that could provide some directionality for the JPY. The yen hasn’t been acting all that “normally” recently, as traders hang on comments from Japanese officials that might indicate intervention to support the currency.
To make matters more confusing, the head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said some things that appear to be contradictory. There’s a ball of forex yarn here that needs to be untangled to get a better idea of where the yen could be headed in the medium-to-long term.
First, the data
Tomorrow, Japan will publish its trade balance which is expected to see a dramatic reduction in the trade deficit to just ¥46.7B from ¥1.37T reported in May. Japan typically has relatively large fluctuations in its trade statistics, but if the forecast is correct, it would be the smallest deficit since the latter part of 2021. The weakness of the currency (and brief recovery earlier this year) have been a key factor affecting the trade balance, which is an important component for the BOJ’s decision-making.
The shrinking deficit is expected to be because imports are forecast to decline while exports are expected to grow. Part of that dynamic is seen as a result of the weaker yen meaning that exports are priced at a higher value. On the other hand, the shrinking imports are a sign of lack of dynamism in the economy. The erosion of purchasing power from a weaker currency could mean Japanese citizens are buying fewer things. That would be a worrying sign for the BOJ.
What’s the BOJ up to?
Just last Sunday, the Governor of the BOJ admitted that the weakness in the yen was a concern, and that the bank could take measures to address it. He used more technical speech, of course, talking about restoring market pricing. But the takeaway is what mattered for the market reaction. Just two days later, on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that the BOJ is committed to easing.
This changing commentary shows the dilemma of the BOJ, which wants to keep easing in order to support the economy. That means not worrying about a weaker yen, because that helps exports. But the weaker yen has contributed to rising inflation, and slowing the economy. So the BOJ would be worried about a weaker yen.
Clearing up the situation
Ueda has repeatedly said that he wants to see inflation “sustainably” rising at the target rate of 2%. Inflation has been higher than that for months now. What he means is that the current bout of high inflation is seen as “temporary”, and the result of non-market driven yen weakness that has raised the cost of imported goods. “Non-market driven” here means things like carry trade and bets that the BOJ won’t intervene as the currency weakens. The BOJ is trying to cajole markets into getting the yen higher without actually having to do anything to strengthen the yen.
If inflation turns around and starts rising, however, the BOJ might have to come to the conclusion that they can’t have their cake and eat it too. That might prompt a move towards shoring up the yen, such as widening the YCC again. Japanese annual June inflation is expected to tick up to 3.3% from 3.2% prior.
To make matters more confusing, the head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said some things that appear to be contradictory. There’s a ball of forex yarn here that needs to be untangled to get a better idea of where the yen could be headed in the medium-to-long term.
First, the data
Tomorrow, Japan will publish its trade balance which is expected to see a dramatic reduction in the trade deficit to just ¥46.7B from ¥1.37T reported in May. Japan typically has relatively large fluctuations in its trade statistics, but if the forecast is correct, it would be the smallest deficit since the latter part of 2021. The weakness of the currency (and brief recovery earlier this year) have been a key factor affecting the trade balance, which is an important component for the BOJ’s decision-making.
The shrinking deficit is expected to be because imports are forecast to decline while exports are expected to grow. Part of that dynamic is seen as a result of the weaker yen meaning that exports are priced at a higher value. On the other hand, the shrinking imports are a sign of lack of dynamism in the economy. The erosion of purchasing power from a weaker currency could mean Japanese citizens are buying fewer things. That would be a worrying sign for the BOJ.
What’s the BOJ up to?
Just last Sunday, the Governor of the BOJ admitted that the weakness in the yen was a concern, and that the bank could take measures to address it. He used more technical speech, of course, talking about restoring market pricing. But the takeaway is what mattered for the market reaction. Just two days later, on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that the BOJ is committed to easing.
This changing commentary shows the dilemma of the BOJ, which wants to keep easing in order to support the economy. That means not worrying about a weaker yen, because that helps exports. But the weaker yen has contributed to rising inflation, and slowing the economy. So the BOJ would be worried about a weaker yen.
Clearing up the situation
Ueda has repeatedly said that he wants to see inflation “sustainably” rising at the target rate of 2%. Inflation has been higher than that for months now. What he means is that the current bout of high inflation is seen as “temporary”, and the result of non-market driven yen weakness that has raised the cost of imported goods. “Non-market driven” here means things like carry trade and bets that the BOJ won’t intervene as the currency weakens. The BOJ is trying to cajole markets into getting the yen higher without actually having to do anything to strengthen the yen.
If inflation turns around and starts rising, however, the BOJ might have to come to the conclusion that they can’t have their cake and eat it too. That might prompt a move towards shoring up the yen, such as widening the YCC again. Japanese annual June inflation is expected to tick up to 3.3% from 3.2% prior.
Comment:
itcoin lagging gold despite weakening dollar: A Bitcoin, gold, USD analysis
The dollar continues to weak, now 12.5% off its 20-year high last year
Gold and Bitcoin tend to strengthen when the dollar falls
The relationship has turned this week though with Bitcoin lagging
The dollar continues to get hammered.
After dominating virtually every currency throughout the COVID pandemic, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit a twenty-year high in Q4 of last year. Since then, however, it has shed 12.5% of its value.
The fall comes as inflation continues to cool, with the most recent CPI data putting year-over-year inflation at 3%. While core inflation remains a little stickier, the market is nonetheless betting that one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in recent history is finally coming to a close.
The dollar strengthens in times of uncertainty because correlations go to one in a crisis, while there is a flight to safety as investors peel back on the risk curve. And there is no safer asset than the global reserve currency, so the dollar picks up steam in such turbulent periods.
While the last couple of years do not quantify as a recession, the turbulent climate which has arisen out of rampant inflation and spiking interest rates (not to mention a once-in-a generation global pandemic and all the bespoke economic fallout that entailed) has caused mass uncertainty. This in turn has increased the attractiveness of the dollar.
Additionally, the faster pace of interest rates in the US compared to many nations worldwide has encouraged capital to flow into the greenback. But with inflation cooling off and the market betting the rate hiking cycle is now nearing its conclusion, the climate has changed – and the dollar has pulled back as a result.
How are other assets affected by the dollar?
This is all relatively straight-forward, but what does this mean for other assets?
Well, as mentioned above, the dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning it is also the lifeblood of the global financial system. In such a way, the effects are widespread. If we look at the classic example of gold, a falling dollar means it takes more dollars to purchase the same amount of gold (and vice-versa). So we tend to see gold rise when the dollar falls, even if it may be nothing to do with gold itself.
In the next chart, I have plotted the correlation between the dollar index and gold over the last year, which shows a strong negative relationship in the -0.8 to -0.9 range for much of the period (albeit with a recent weakening).
Let’s now look at Bitcoin, gold’s wannabe best friend.With Bitcoin far more volatile as an asset than gold, and given the numerous crypto-specific scandals (Terra, Celsius, FTX etc) of the past year, this is unsurprising.Why is Bitcoin selling off amid dollar weakness?
This takes us to an interesting finding: why is Bitcoin not being buoyed by this weaker dollar? Gold is up 2.4% in the last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s dip. On the other hand, Bitcoin has actually fallen slightly, which goes against trend.
In truth, I am not really sure why the buying activity has been subdued. Perhaps buyers did their part after the XRP ruling last week, and are hesitant to pile further in while the market finds its footing. But that is a shaky theory at best.
Even looking at miners in the next chart, we can see that they are offloading Bitcoin rather than buying, which they have been doing since the start of the month. It seems that for whatever reason, there are just not as many buyers out there in the last week compared to normal, and the sell pressure has not been soaked up by a softening dollar. To be clear, this is far from alarming and a totally benign occurrence. My gut feeling is that this is simply a summer lag, which has tended to see the lowest trading activity in Bitcoin markets in the past, too.
Either way, it’s an interesting little tidbit. The relationship between gold, Bitcoin and dollar is always fascinating to track as it incorporates so much macro and so many intriguing variables, so it is worth keeping an eye on. If the trend continues to deviate, a deeper analysis may be warranted. But for now, it feels OK to assume this is just buyers taking a little summer break, and a minor abnormality.
The dollar continues to weak, now 12.5% off its 20-year high last year
Gold and Bitcoin tend to strengthen when the dollar falls
The relationship has turned this week though with Bitcoin lagging
The dollar continues to get hammered.
After dominating virtually every currency throughout the COVID pandemic, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit a twenty-year high in Q4 of last year. Since then, however, it has shed 12.5% of its value.
The fall comes as inflation continues to cool, with the most recent CPI data putting year-over-year inflation at 3%. While core inflation remains a little stickier, the market is nonetheless betting that one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in recent history is finally coming to a close.
The dollar strengthens in times of uncertainty because correlations go to one in a crisis, while there is a flight to safety as investors peel back on the risk curve. And there is no safer asset than the global reserve currency, so the dollar picks up steam in such turbulent periods.
While the last couple of years do not quantify as a recession, the turbulent climate which has arisen out of rampant inflation and spiking interest rates (not to mention a once-in-a generation global pandemic and all the bespoke economic fallout that entailed) has caused mass uncertainty. This in turn has increased the attractiveness of the dollar.
Additionally, the faster pace of interest rates in the US compared to many nations worldwide has encouraged capital to flow into the greenback. But with inflation cooling off and the market betting the rate hiking cycle is now nearing its conclusion, the climate has changed – and the dollar has pulled back as a result.
How are other assets affected by the dollar?
This is all relatively straight-forward, but what does this mean for other assets?
Well, as mentioned above, the dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning it is also the lifeblood of the global financial system. In such a way, the effects are widespread. If we look at the classic example of gold, a falling dollar means it takes more dollars to purchase the same amount of gold (and vice-versa). So we tend to see gold rise when the dollar falls, even if it may be nothing to do with gold itself.
In the next chart, I have plotted the correlation between the dollar index and gold over the last year, which shows a strong negative relationship in the -0.8 to -0.9 range for much of the period (albeit with a recent weakening).
Let’s now look at Bitcoin, gold’s wannabe best friend.With Bitcoin far more volatile as an asset than gold, and given the numerous crypto-specific scandals (Terra, Celsius, FTX etc) of the past year, this is unsurprising.Why is Bitcoin selling off amid dollar weakness?
This takes us to an interesting finding: why is Bitcoin not being buoyed by this weaker dollar? Gold is up 2.4% in the last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s dip. On the other hand, Bitcoin has actually fallen slightly, which goes against trend.
In truth, I am not really sure why the buying activity has been subdued. Perhaps buyers did their part after the XRP ruling last week, and are hesitant to pile further in while the market finds its footing. But that is a shaky theory at best.
Even looking at miners in the next chart, we can see that they are offloading Bitcoin rather than buying, which they have been doing since the start of the month. It seems that for whatever reason, there are just not as many buyers out there in the last week compared to normal, and the sell pressure has not been soaked up by a softening dollar. To be clear, this is far from alarming and a totally benign occurrence. My gut feeling is that this is simply a summer lag, which has tended to see the lowest trading activity in Bitcoin markets in the past, too.
Either way, it’s an interesting little tidbit. The relationship between gold, Bitcoin and dollar is always fascinating to track as it incorporates so much macro and so many intriguing variables, so it is worth keeping an eye on. If the trend continues to deviate, a deeper analysis may be warranted. But for now, it feels OK to assume this is just buyers taking a little summer break, and a minor abnormality.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
Comment:
Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Comment:
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Comment:
New Evaluation Data coming out now..
Key days next week: wednesday FOMC
Friday PCE Data
GDP is unimportant
Range next week
15250-16050
Attention Grey Neutral Zone 15775 area
Short levels next week(Chat me privately in tradingview)
Buy levels Next week (Chat me private)
Take profiz for Day trading(Chat me privately)....
Key days next week: wednesday FOMC
Friday PCE Data
GDP is unimportant
Range next week
15250-16050
Attention Grey Neutral Zone 15775 area
Short levels next week(Chat me privately in tradingview)
Buy levels Next week (Chat me private)
Take profiz for Day trading(Chat me privately)....
Comment:
Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers.
Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.
Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.
Comment:
Dow Rises for 11th Session
The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
Comment:
Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Comment:
US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher
Comment:
Trade open, Inside Day, Correction probably(30%)to 15500 are(Zone)
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
Comment:
Ok folks its becoming seriouse JOLTS Job Openings 42.6, ISM 46.4 not too bad...tommorrow ADP, then CPI and non farm payrol:We are in an Inside session. Possible pullbacks to the sweeps: 15631; 15554;15522;15400; BELOW 15400 resting sweep stops and extreme buy pressure.. Monitor 1 minute trend, use bullish setups only if reversal confirmed....
In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450
In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450
Comment:
Correction waiting for ISM an data tomorrow.
Price now is at 15260 ,so I bought another 5 NQ, DAILY WEEKLY 4H bullish, On 1 min. Bullish trend again, so I use to be bullish ,cuz major trend bullish
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE GO TO 15000 OR LOWER:nO MATTER.Perfect to buy
Price now is at 15260 ,so I bought another 5 NQ, DAILY WEEKLY 4H bullish, On 1 min. Bullish trend again, so I use to be bullish ,cuz major trend bullish
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE GO TO 15000 OR LOWER:nO MATTER.Perfect to buy
Comment:
market waitig for ISM 52.7 .now bullish signal. perfect
Comment:
Tradeplan 7.august to 11 Auust
wednesday Bond aution
Thurseday CPI
Trend Bullish
Drop pullback Buy at picadelli point(Picadelli August Buy points oly for my subscribers)
Buy2: pICADELI SUPPORT ZONE AT 15...
Buy 3zone Power buy at picadelu 15...
Profit taking at 1.....
wednesday Bond aution
Thurseday CPI
Trend Bullish
Drop pullback Buy at picadelli point(Picadelli August Buy points oly for my subscribers)
Buy2: pICADELI SUPPORT ZONE AT 15...
Buy 3zone Power buy at picadelu 15...
Profit taking at 1.....
Comment:
New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Comment:
Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Comment:
Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.
Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
Comment:
yes bullish
Comment:
Bitcoin's Tight Correlation With Nasdaq-SPX Ratio Muddies Safe-Haven Narrative
Bitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.
Bitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.
Comment:
Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
Comment:
Comment:
Nasdaq US100 Strong Bullish Gap Up Open to 23000
Comment:
China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 51-week Low
Comment:
DXY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
Comment:
US100
Nasdaq down target to 14500
Gap Fill
US100
Nasdaq down target to 14500 Gap Fill
Comment:
NQ nEXT BUY POSITION below 14475 The market will turn if not on tuesday,but on ednesday. Currently They wanna fil Gap down around 14200-14575, before the market rises higher to 15850. If it doesnt happen this week, next monday we will have explosive GAP UP and bullish move for the next 3 weeks
Comment:
++++Be careful Attention! VERY IMPORTANT+++++
10Y Bonds US are testing 15 years Highest High. On day and weekly the trend is bullish. If it breaks that high and closes above 4,5 then the bonds US10Y will rise to 4,70%: At that level USDJPY; NASDAQ,RTY SP500, USD will break own nearly to cash and it will cause a sudden death or Sudden Crsh. So watch closely that maket,
++++iT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT+++ Please dont trade blindly. And watch the markets and their intermarket relations.
10Y Bonds US are testing 15 years Highest High. On day and weekly the trend is bullish. If it breaks that high and closes above 4,5 then the bonds US10Y will rise to 4,70%: At that level USDJPY; NASDAQ,RTY SP500, USD will break own nearly to cash and it will cause a sudden death or Sudden Crsh. So watch closely that maket,
++++iT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT+++ Please dont trade blindly. And watch the markets and their intermarket relations.
Comment:
nasdaq beaish on lower tf, most important day wednesday and friay, be careful of the bull traps,false bulls until we reach the low of the gap below 14500.Wait for onfirmation.. The gap is in the middle of 2022 bearish move...So have patience until getting signals on all f.
Intermarket confirmation:Today we have seen nasdaq was rising but RTY was short. Ususlly RTY follows NQ. also we had falling dxy and falling oil prices. The reason is strong Bods 10y . Ususally Oil is benefitting of falling dxy, That is confirmaing that traders are trying to compensate their losses in NQ, that confirms the fast move of NQ Up and down. On wednesafternoon we will test the markets reaction. Above 15150 is the first buy signal, If the market rises higher, and we dont get the down gap now, in 2-3 weeks NQ will crash again at 15850 to 13200, So it will be better to fil the downside gap right now. So have patience and protect your capital Sometimes no trading is also trading.
Intermarket confirmation:Today we have seen nasdaq was rising but RTY was short. Ususlly RTY follows NQ. also we had falling dxy and falling oil prices. The reason is strong Bods 10y . Ususally Oil is benefitting of falling dxy, That is confirmaing that traders are trying to compensate their losses in NQ, that confirms the fast move of NQ Up and down. On wednesafternoon we will test the markets reaction. Above 15150 is the first buy signal, If the market rises higher, and we dont get the down gap now, in 2-3 weeks NQ will crash again at 15850 to 13200, So it will be better to fil the downside gap right now. So have patience and protect your capital Sometimes no trading is also trading.
Comment:
US existing home sales slide again, but prices up from a year earlier
Dont Buy before the market stabilizes at 14000-14400... Storm is coming
Bonds up
DXY UP
CHINA!
Powell speaking till Sunday
The Fed May Need To Go To 6%
Fed Credibility at Risk If Inflation Target Changes, Barkin Says
banks dragged after S&P Global Ratings joined Moody’s Investors Service and downgraded some US banks due to a challenging economic environment.
Nvidia's stock initially rose to a record high but later fell in anticipation of its earnings report due on Wednesday.
Dont Buy before the market stabilizes at 14000-14400... Storm is coming
Bonds up
DXY UP
CHINA!
Powell speaking till Sunday
The Fed May Need To Go To 6%
Fed Credibility at Risk If Inflation Target Changes, Barkin Says
banks dragged after S&P Global Ratings joined Moody’s Investors Service and downgraded some US banks due to a challenging economic environment.
Nvidia's stock initially rose to a record high but later fell in anticipation of its earnings report due on Wednesday.
Comment:
As I warned days before: Wait for Buy Signals at around 14200-14450Zone AND Wait till Monday open.It´s better we go down now, cuz if we don´t fill the Gap this week, in 3-4 weeks(september) The market will crash from 16000 to this level again.
If we fill this gap till tommorrow close bell, then there is nothing what can stop Nasdaq and other Inidces on their way upsides....Wait to fill the gap completely. If it breaks the gap down, then it will ontinue to reach 1385-13650-13200...and then revere. So Use your ability to practice patience. If you re not patient enough, then.... ask Dalai Lama how to practice patience
If we fill this gap till tommorrow close bell, then there is nothing what can stop Nasdaq and other Inidces on their way upsides....Wait to fill the gap completely. If it breaks the gap down, then it will ontinue to reach 1385-13650-13200...and then revere. So Use your ability to practice patience. If you re not patient enough, then.... ask Dalai Lama how to practice patience
Comment:
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an end
Comment:
US yields rise as data suggests higher rates for longer
The data highlights the quandary the market faces a day before Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
The two-year note's US2YT=RR yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 6.7 basis points to 5.019% as it see-sawed either side of the key 5% threshold.
The data highlights the quandary the market faces a day before Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
The two-year note's US2YT=RR yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 6.7 basis points to 5.019% as it see-sawed either side of the key 5% threshold.
Comment:
Gap filled at 14583. Powell Jackson Hole: Although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high.... we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.
Buy at 14880 Levels.. Targets up are 15150.Above that zone buying pressure to 15350(Coection Zone)..If breaking 15350 we go to 15850 Gap Up Fill...
Buy at 14880 Levels.. Targets up are 15150.Above that zone buying pressure to 15350(Coection Zone)..If breaking 15350 we go to 15850 Gap Up Fill...
Comment:
Next week in case we break the folloing level, NQ may go to:
Keep Monitor closely these levels ,VERY VERY IMPORTANT 14609,14499, Balue Retrace 14280 and 14 256
The bullish target will be 14982 and 15132, First Target
WE ATE IN A PRETTY NASTY DOWN TREND ON 5 minute TF, So Opening on Monday an where the Price tends to go is pretty important for the reet of the week!
Keep Monitor closely these levels ,VERY VERY IMPORTANT 14609,14499, Balue Retrace 14280 and 14 256
The bullish target will be 14982 and 15132, First Target
WE ATE IN A PRETTY NASTY DOWN TREND ON 5 minute TF, So Opening on Monday an where the Price tends to go is pretty important for the reet of the week!
Comment:
Sadly Nasdaq has not fill the Gap down completly, But targeting 15850 UPSIDE GAP NOW: Today disappointing US dAT PUTTING bONDS AND dxy sell off, Below 15303 NQ will go bak to 15000 area, an if breaking that zone, hopefully going down to 14400. As long as Lower TF Trend is bullish, go in sync with Daily major trend, but be prepared to stong pullback. I hoped to reache the gap down in Auust, but it doesn´t seem so. In 2-3 Weeks we may see That STRONG pullback from the highs15703-15900 back to 14500.In that case NQ will stay longer at that level and maybe go also someway deeper ....September is the dirtiest trading month ever, Last year bloody low volatility month ever. If it s repeating this year the same, then we will see the corretion with higher probability. It is essential to montor trades, if NQ doesnt make Hiher highs than 15950 which will create a mis-successed Double TOP PATTERN, and breaking below 14500 will create a sell off pattern. This will happen if the 2 conditions above will occure.
Comment:
++++++IMPORTANT NASDAQ UPDATES++++++
Most important Day:Wednesdday Data and news
We have now 2 open Gaps upside and downside. Next week ontract rollover.It means if we dont fill one of these 2 haps this week, ,next week we will have 3 open Gaps, and tha means exzreme volatility that will affect also other markets like FX, Cypto.
Target 1 bullish: i ope you have followed my recommandations to buy nasdaq at 14600 zone. If not, then do nothing and stay out, Uf yes,then be aware of close your poitions if we lose 15416....This is our trailing top, now in Profit,that is correlating with VAL Monthly. If Nasaq loses 15416 it will drop to 14500 and then 13850..If it hols and retraces bak we go upsides to 15660,15712,15752,15660,15812,15850,15950, and maybe 16050,,,,There we will have lower volume and more selling pressure, if bonds dont retrae back. If DXY and bonds jump and on the same time hawkish FED news, nasaq and all other indices will drop short, quickly, suddenly and sharply. Dont worry:It will happen so fast, you wont have time to sctatch your hairs. So like a mini crash, but short and quickly. On 13800 area it will happen the opposite:This time the Bulls will agreively do the same with you. So be aware. If you are unsure, take profits, or maybe small losses, and stay out. It is a real rumble, better than mortal combat 5
Most important Day:Wednesdday Data and news
We have now 2 open Gaps upside and downside. Next week ontract rollover.It means if we dont fill one of these 2 haps this week, ,next week we will have 3 open Gaps, and tha means exzreme volatility that will affect also other markets like FX, Cypto.
Target 1 bullish: i ope you have followed my recommandations to buy nasdaq at 14600 zone. If not, then do nothing and stay out, Uf yes,then be aware of close your poitions if we lose 15416....This is our trailing top, now in Profit,that is correlating with VAL Monthly. If Nasaq loses 15416 it will drop to 14500 and then 13850..If it hols and retraces bak we go upsides to 15660,15712,15752,15660,15812,15850,15950, and maybe 16050,,,,There we will have lower volume and more selling pressure, if bonds dont retrae back. If DXY and bonds jump and on the same time hawkish FED news, nasaq and all other indices will drop short, quickly, suddenly and sharply. Dont worry:It will happen so fast, you wont have time to sctatch your hairs. So like a mini crash, but short and quickly. On 13800 area it will happen the opposite:This time the Bulls will agreively do the same with you. So be aware. If you are unsure, take profits, or maybe small losses, and stay out. It is a real rumble, better than mortal combat 5
Comment:
EUROPE opening lower after Asian open.......Today important data.... 5 Senarios....4 Bwaeish 1 Bullish..... Probability to go own to 14500 increase from 68% now to 89%(Traders Sentiment).
If nq goes up to 15950 first then we have proper goo situation to short the market till the beginning of October
If nq goes up to 15950 first then we have proper goo situation to short the market till the beginning of October
Comment:
short to fill 14500 zone in september
Comment:
Below15416 SHort Target 15280,15150,15050,14500
Comment:
Gap 14500 still unfilled
It seems we direct Gap up 15850-155950 first. current state bullish, But be aware of the next week
It seems we direct Gap up 15850-155950 first. current state bullish, But be aware of the next week