Potential Trend Reversal on 10 Year Bond Yields in the US
Raising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks. This would trigger a stock market correction in the US.
In orange, it's noted increased Volatility which builds up as we approach end of trend.
Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is a trend reversal pattern. The head being a below trend capitulation.
Does this mean the market expects higher inflation / higher growth?
If we have sustained higher inflation, commodities and stocks will do very well. Also crypto. Although we should expect moderate shockwaves from that trend reversal. Money flowing out of expensive markets to buy the dip on bonds.
If the trend reversal fails to materialize, and yields keep falling, then we should expect a melt up in growth stocks & crypto.
In orange, it's noted increased Volatility which builds up as we approach end of trend.
Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is a trend reversal pattern. The head being a below trend capitulation.
Does this mean the market expects higher inflation / higher growth?
If we have sustained higher inflation, commodities and stocks will do very well. Also crypto. Although we should expect moderate shockwaves from that trend reversal. Money flowing out of expensive markets to buy the dip on bonds.
If the trend reversal fails to materialize, and yields keep falling, then we should expect a melt up in growth stocks & crypto.