20190404 Continued Optimistic

TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
Important News
1. UK blocked no deal Brexit, Sterling boosted
2. US-China trade talk continued, was said to give China until 2025 to meet its commitment. Market continued being optimistic.

Rate: US rates continued to rise with 10-year yield climbed over 2.50% level, given that the market continued being optimistic about the outcome of US-China trade talk. Technically, 10-year now reached 20 MA resistant level, need to watch if rate4 could continue to climb. If successfully stand above 20 MA level (which is about 2.51%), would expect to test 60 MA resist (2.63%). Looking at a longer time scale, weekly MACD histogram is also positive slope, thus would not expect another sharp fall for rates too soon. Having said that, would not turn position to long rate since still taking a short stance on rate in longer prospective as major central banks are now dovish and inflation still not a problem. As for curve, would still hold steepen position since the current level is still near historical low. Both EUR and AUD rates rose following US rates and is now at 20 MA resist. Would cut short position if climb above the resist.

Global stock market continued to climb on positive expectation on US-China trade talk. SPX closed at 2873.40, testing 2900 level. Fear and greed index grew to 62, entered greed level. Two factors that drag the index were Put-call ratio and Junk bond demand. Though put call ratio is in fear zone, over the absolute still indicates positive prospective. Other markets also rising, with STOXX50E closed at 3435.6, SHCOMP closed at 3216.295. Looking forward, the market is now full of optimism, however, whether the market could continue to grow, still needs to look at the guidance in April and if there’s still other positive news. Giving the current high level and slow grow fundamental, would not add long position now but will not bet the market to fall too soon.
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