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Dow outlook – Oil could derail rally

FX:US30   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Resistance – 17,900, 18,000, 18,167

Support – 17,700, 17,550, 17,400

Oil             benchmarks are fast losing ground after OPEC failed to reach new oil             supply agreement. US oil             intraday chart now shows head and shoulder formation. In case prices break below neckline, selling interest could spike.

This could drag energy and mining shares lower, thus derailing US equity market rally.

Outlook
  • As long as the rising trend line – drawn from Feb low and May low – remains intact, fresh demand could be anticipated in dips. Only a day end closing below the trend line would strengthen bears and expose May low of 17,331.
  • On the higher side, a clear break above 17,900 (May 31) would add credence to bullish break from flag pattern seen last week and open doors for a break above April high of 18.167 levels.
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