The SP500 has been tricky these past few days. Why it is so is because, in my point of view, it is making a pullback and therefore shifting the trend to the upside. Very often price action can be hard to understand during these shifts.
For the entire count since All Time High, I have 2 options, one is bearish and the other one is very bearish.
The move down began with an expanding leading diagonal* ending the 24th of Februari 2022 at 4104$.
It was then followed by an ABC flat** that ended the 29th of March 2022 at 4640$.
Finally we had an impulse with an extended 5th wave on the 12th of May 2022 at 3935$ before now making bounces for higher price action.
(ABC) Zigzag scenario:
This first idea is based on that we have finished a zigzag***. It could actually be so because the (C) wave ended almost perfectly with having the same length as wave (A). If this idea plays out there are a lot of possibilities to come. We could have ended the entire move down pushing us to new all time highs, and it could also be the first sequence of a large 3 waves correction that could either be a flat or a complex correction. The second part in such a move is bullish (the wave B or wave X), and if it is a flat, it could even make an all time high before resuming down to new lows.
Large impulse scenario:
This idea is based on the fact that the last impulse down we had was in fact the 1st wave of a large (3)rd wave down. This is as much possible as the previous scenario. Right now we would therefore be in the correction sequence of wave 1 of (3) which would be wave 2 of (3).
As you see this makes the future quite uncertain and this is why we have to take one assumption at the time and take smaller targets and positions. But one thing is almost certain in these scenarios, that the price is moving higher and will at least make it as an ABC flat to the price of around 4250$ the coming week.
*A Leading Diagonal: is a 5 waves move that happens in either in wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag . It's a the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the ending diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are usually 3 waves sequences.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
*** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
For the entire count since All Time High, I have 2 options, one is bearish and the other one is very bearish.
The move down began with an expanding leading diagonal* ending the 24th of Februari 2022 at 4104$.
It was then followed by an ABC flat** that ended the 29th of March 2022 at 4640$.
Finally we had an impulse with an extended 5th wave on the 12th of May 2022 at 3935$ before now making bounces for higher price action.
(ABC) Zigzag scenario:
This first idea is based on that we have finished a zigzag***. It could actually be so because the (C) wave ended almost perfectly with having the same length as wave (A). If this idea plays out there are a lot of possibilities to come. We could have ended the entire move down pushing us to new all time highs, and it could also be the first sequence of a large 3 waves correction that could either be a flat or a complex correction. The second part in such a move is bullish (the wave B or wave X), and if it is a flat, it could even make an all time high before resuming down to new lows.
Large impulse scenario:
This idea is based on the fact that the last impulse down we had was in fact the 1st wave of a large (3)rd wave down. This is as much possible as the previous scenario. Right now we would therefore be in the correction sequence of wave 1 of (3) which would be wave 2 of (3).
As you see this makes the future quite uncertain and this is why we have to take one assumption at the time and take smaller targets and positions. But one thing is almost certain in these scenarios, that the price is moving higher and will at least make it as an ABC flat to the price of around 4250$ the coming week.
*A Leading Diagonal: is a 5 waves move that happens in either in wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag . It's a the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the ending diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are usually 3 waves sequences.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
*** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.