Last time, on June 2, I published an analysis on the SP500 where it could be developing a wave (B) of a flat. We are now ending this wave (B) that should leave space for new highs as wave (C).
FA:
Today is the FED's FOMC meeting and we will know whether they will rise the rates or not. The plan is right now 50bps rise. If they don't raise more expect scenario I. If they raise, especially more than 75bps then expect scenario II to be more probable.
TA:
Scenario I:
The entire move down from the all time high (4th of January 2022) to the low point of 3859$ (12th of May 2022) looks to be an (ABC) zigzag*.
This zigzag formed a leading expanding diagonal as wave (A) that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 4105$.
It was then followed by a corrective (B) wave that ended the 29th of March at the price of 4610$.
Lastly the (C) wave was an impulse that contained an extended 5th wave. This impulse ended a bit lower than the 100% fib target to the 114.6% fib instead which is fine.
In this scenario, the entire zigzag is the first wave ((A)) of a bigger move down, an ((ABC)) flat**. This would mean that we should have wave ((B)) incoming as a flat because:
>((B)) should have another structure than ((A)) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>((B)) should retrace minimum 90% of ((A)) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
In this wave ((B)) we are ending wave (B) and today wave (C) should develope.
Wave (B) made more than 90% and less than 138.2% of (A) which is perfectly within its' range. So we now know that wave ((B)) is an extended flat which is good as it follows to the rule of alternation.
Scenario II:
Instead of a ZZ as it was in the first scenario, the wave (A) would instead be the first wave (1) of a bigger impulse.
The wave (B) would therefore be the wave (2).
The wave (C), only reaching the 114.6% fib ext of (1)-(2) would therefore more likealy be wave 1 of (3) than wave (3) as the normal target for wave (3) is 161.8% fib ext.
This scenario is, as you see, very bearish but entirely possible based on the ewt count.
If the price declines under 3659$, then this scenario would be confirmed.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag putting us in a wave ((X)) at the moment. If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the first scenario.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
FA:
Today is the FED's FOMC meeting and we will know whether they will rise the rates or not. The plan is right now 50bps rise. If they don't raise more expect scenario I. If they raise, especially more than 75bps then expect scenario II to be more probable.
TA:
Scenario I:
The entire move down from the all time high (4th of January 2022) to the low point of 3859$ (12th of May 2022) looks to be an (ABC) zigzag*.
This zigzag formed a leading expanding diagonal as wave (A) that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 4105$.
It was then followed by a corrective (B) wave that ended the 29th of March at the price of 4610$.
Lastly the (C) wave was an impulse that contained an extended 5th wave. This impulse ended a bit lower than the 100% fib target to the 114.6% fib instead which is fine.
In this scenario, the entire zigzag is the first wave ((A)) of a bigger move down, an ((ABC)) flat**. This would mean that we should have wave ((B)) incoming as a flat because:
>((B)) should have another structure than ((A)) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>((B)) should retrace minimum 90% of ((A)) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
In this wave ((B)) we are ending wave (B) and today wave (C) should develope.
Wave (B) made more than 90% and less than 138.2% of (A) which is perfectly within its' range. So we now know that wave ((B)) is an extended flat which is good as it follows to the rule of alternation.
Scenario II:
Instead of a ZZ as it was in the first scenario, the wave (A) would instead be the first wave (1) of a bigger impulse.
The wave (B) would therefore be the wave (2).
The wave (C), only reaching the 114.6% fib ext of (1)-(2) would therefore more likealy be wave 1 of (3) than wave (3) as the normal target for wave (3) is 161.8% fib ext.
This scenario is, as you see, very bearish but entirely possible based on the ewt count.
If the price declines under 3659$, then this scenario would be confirmed.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag putting us in a wave ((X)) at the moment. If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the first scenario.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.