Last time, on May 20, I published an analysis on the SP500 where it could be developing a wave C of a flat. We are now ending this wave C that should make one last high as wave ((v)) of C to end it around 4250$.
TA:
Scenario I:
The entire move down from the all time high (4th of January 2022) to the low point of 3859$ (12th of May 2022) looks to be an (ABC) zigzag*.
This zigzag formed a leading expanding diagonal as wave (A) that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 4105$.
It was then followed by a corrective (B) wave that ended the 29th of March at the price of 4610$.
Lastly the (C) wave was an impulse that contained an extended 5th wave. This impulse ended a bit lower than the 100% fib target to the 114.6% fib instead which is fine.
In this scenario, the entire zigzag is the first wave ((A)) of a bigger move down, an ((ABC)) flat**. This would mean that we should have wave ((B)) incoming as a flat because:
>((B)) should have another structure than ((A)) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>((B)) should retrace minimum 90% of ((A)) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
In this wave ((B)) we are ending wave (A) (one wave left as I mentioned in the beginning) and soon wave (B) should develope.
Wave (B) should make AT LEAST 90% of (A). So a good target for (B) is around the same level as the start of (A).
Scenario II:
Instead of a ZZ as it was in the first scenario, the wave (A) would instead be the first wave (1) of a bigger impulse.
The wave (B) would therefore be the wave (2).
The wave (C), only reaching the 114.6% fib ext of (1)-(2) would therefore more likealy be wave 1 of (3) than wave (3) as the normal target for wave (3) is 161.8% fib ext.
This scenario is, as you see, very bearish but entirely possible based on the ewt count.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag putting us in a wave ((X)) at the moment. If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the first scenario.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
TA:
Scenario I:
The entire move down from the all time high (4th of January 2022) to the low point of 3859$ (12th of May 2022) looks to be an (ABC) zigzag*.
This zigzag formed a leading expanding diagonal as wave (A) that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 4105$.
It was then followed by a corrective (B) wave that ended the 29th of March at the price of 4610$.
Lastly the (C) wave was an impulse that contained an extended 5th wave. This impulse ended a bit lower than the 100% fib target to the 114.6% fib instead which is fine.
In this scenario, the entire zigzag is the first wave ((A)) of a bigger move down, an ((ABC)) flat**. This would mean that we should have wave ((B)) incoming as a flat because:
>((B)) should have another structure than ((A)) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>((B)) should retrace minimum 90% of ((A)) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
In this wave ((B)) we are ending wave (A) (one wave left as I mentioned in the beginning) and soon wave (B) should develope.
Wave (B) should make AT LEAST 90% of (A). So a good target for (B) is around the same level as the start of (A).
Scenario II:
Instead of a ZZ as it was in the first scenario, the wave (A) would instead be the first wave (1) of a bigger impulse.
The wave (B) would therefore be the wave (2).
The wave (C), only reaching the 114.6% fib ext of (1)-(2) would therefore more likealy be wave 1 of (3) than wave (3) as the normal target for wave (3) is 161.8% fib ext.
This scenario is, as you see, very bearish but entirely possible based on the ewt count.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag putting us in a wave ((X)) at the moment. If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the first scenario.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
The ((v))th wave of C of (A) developed as a truncation.
If it rises before the box area then it could be a ZZ instead of a flat
which would make the lowest point (my wave B of (A)) as wave 5 instead.
But I don't think so.
I think we will go to the bottom (maybe even making a small new one) to then take off as wave (C).