U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims (Updated Chart & Release)
U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims
Rep: 1,806k ✅Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 1,845k
Prev: 1,832k (revised down from 1,834)
Whilst the short term lower than expected continuous jobless claims are welcomed the long term trend is one of thee most concerning charts out there.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.806m (500k+). This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer.
Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning.
What are Initial and Continuous claims?
Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst Continued Jobless Claims accounts for people who continued to seek their unemployment benefit into week 2 and subsequent weeks.
Next up, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 💪🏻
Rep: 1,806k ✅Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 1,845k
Prev: 1,832k (revised down from 1,834)
Whilst the short term lower than expected continuous jobless claims are welcomed the long term trend is one of thee most concerning charts out there.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.806m (500k+). This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer.
Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning.
What are Initial and Continuous claims?
Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst Continued Jobless Claims accounts for people who continued to seek their unemployment benefit into week 2 and subsequent weeks.
Next up, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 💪🏻
Rep: 1,898k 🚨Higher Than Expected 🚨
Exp: 1,840k
Prev: 1,828k (revised down from 1,833k)
Higher than expected continuous jobless claims keep the long term trend rising. This is one of the most concerning charts out there at present.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.898m (almost 600k increase). This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer. An 598,000 increase is very significant and is consistent with recessionary events.
Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and we have just reached the max level of approx. 1.928k (of a 614k increase from the lows) for an advance recession warning.
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