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Predictive Analysis/Forecasting | $USD $CAD #fed #BOC #forex

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Bearish bias prevails at this point


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

- Numerical Targets:

1 - TG-1 = 1.21656 - 25 FEB 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 1.17984 - 25 FEB 2015


- Nominal Targets:

1 - TG-Lo = 1.15527 - 25 FEB 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 1.13517 - 25 FEB 2015


STRUCTURAL TRADING:

- Invalidation > 1.26965
- Strongest bearish resistance @ 1.26234 - See "Market Geo" next for expected rallying extent.


GEOMETRIC             DEVELOPMENT:

- Potential WW with pending 5-wave expected as a Point-5-prime expression, rather than a conventional Point-5; Subsequent rallying would likely be capped at WW's Point-4 level, or 1.26620.

Expect a protracted, time-consumptive unfolding of price at this level, as EW's 4th wave is unfolding, respective of the "Rule Of Alternations".


OVERALL:

Bearish bias pending significant break of floor, which is not expected to occur until resolution of background advance geometry.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
EW contracting triangle 4th David?

USDCAD: Crude as an indicator and the importance of fundamentals
Reply
DogeBuffet
2 years ago
Nice I had the same idea :)
USDCAD Short after important news
Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDCAD: Symmetrical a-b = c-d might complete this WW; Bears prevail per model:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $CAD #BOC #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
16 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------$USDCAD hit target at 1.21656; Per Off-Set Rule, geo target lowered to level of Pt-3 from 5'':

snapshot


$USD $CAD #FED #BOC
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDCAD mulls rally from 1.18861; Geo-Anchor offers alternate Target Line vs. Wolfe Wave:

snapshot


$USD $CAD #BOC #forex
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
22 MAY 2015 - TECH-NOTE: The Larger Predictive Picture


A break of 1.19186 would open the floor to 1.12345, in line with original predictive analysis and forecasting:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, when the price goes past beyond the initial 5' violates the Fibonacci levels but stays below the 5' line, do you still consider as respecting the pattern? For instance, looking at this geomtery
Reply
emre PRO emre
2 years ago
Sorry, hit the button by mistake (too bad there is no delete option)
David, when the price goes past beyond the initial 5', violates the Fibonacci levels but stays below the 5' line, do you still consider as respecting the pattern? For instance, looking at this geometry would you still call the 4 line as a possibility per the offset rule?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
@emre, expect to let a Geo build within a Geo, one potentiating the other.

In the following chart, several Geos have completed and hit their respective 1-4 Line (see the RED circles), whereas a larger encompassing Geo may be developing, with points 1, 2 and 3 drawn only speculatively.

In its best form, the Geo should see Point-4 rest between the price levels of points 1 and 2, which has not occurred at this point. We also assume that most often than not, the 3-4 Leg will develop into a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry. So, the bearish impulse from Point-3 (BLUE) of the larger Geo was just interrupted by a reaction to the upside. If this up-side is to be limited, it should be at a range no greater than 0.618 at best (0.382m 0.500 or 0.786 would otherwise do), then a resumption to the DOWN-side, in which case, Point-4 would fine residence TOWARDS the mid-point relative to Point-1 and Point-2.

If the ideal geometric development above does not occur, the Geo would remain possible, but not ideal, thus requiring looking for internal Geo-Anchors, as a geometric compensation.

Looking at the manner in which I decided to define Point-1 of the larger Geo, simply move backward from the PINK ab = cd construction. What I simply did was to look for a simple reciprocal ab = cd formation, which I have defined as a necessary core definition of the 1-2 Leg (a similar, but inverse way can occur as well, and I will point it out whenever I find a good example), but again, this is not an absolute, simply an ideal construction.

Using the CD component, I cut/pasted it (The cd segment is its own ab = cd symmetrical construction as well, and participates just as relevantly to the ab segment and the 1-2 Leg)

snapshot



Regarding the use of the Fibonacci cluster, be sure to use the 1-2 leg, or better the ENTIRE swing to which it belongs, as follows:

snapshot



Hoping this adds a few more ideas into your Geo play.



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David. I am a bit confused with 3-4 leg developing a cd of the 1-2 leg though. Wouldn't that work against the converging rule of the 1-2 and 3-4 lines?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
@emre - The ab =cd in the 1-2 and 3-4 legs are unrelated - David
+1 Reply
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