4xForecaster

Trade Opp Using #elliottwave, Symmetry & Fibonacci | $CAD #forex

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1567 49 21
Friends,


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

A simple trade opportunity came up. Predictive/Forecasting model calls for a reversal at TG-Hi - 1.11972. Taking a step back and considering the entire system from a geometric             stand-point, symmetries come to the mind's eyes here through AB = CD patterns.

While the current AB = CD pattern remains under development, a projection of the first leg comes to near-alignment with the predictive/forecasting model, supporting the model's target at 1.11972.


ELLIOTT WAVES' REGULAR FLAT:

Assuming that this developing symmetrical geometry arrives at a second AB = CD pattern, we would witness the formation of two Zig-Zag occurring at the top of a major trend. This would simply define an Elliott Waves' Regular Flat pattern, whose outer structure is defined by points A-B-C, and internal structure contains sub-wave counts, such that A, B and C would be borne out of 3, 3, and 5 sub-waves, respectively.


DEFINING PRICE BEHAVIOR:

You will notice also that I have made intentional use of Fibonacci values in the larger A-B-C system. These values were chosen out of a back-testing (sample to the left), where two dominant options suggest a consistent price behavior in terms of achievable depth within smaller occurrences of the Flat.

In both option #1 and #2, the values 0.114, 0.214, 1.131 and 1.272 suggest that at times, a Regular Flat (where Point-B retraces without exceeding the origin of Wave-A, and Point-C would fall slightly below Point-A) would contract internally to values as short as 0.214 (the complementary of 0.786-Fib), and as long as 0.114, and that it would also expand to values as short as 1.131 and as long as 1.272 (all these values being derived from the golden ratio, 0.618).

Hence, of the two options, I chose the contracting and expanding values that would best represent the large A-B-C pattern, considering that B is predicted to be at 1.11972. This would place B near 0.114 relative to the origin of Point-A, and thus this would corresponds to a reiteration of the Flat in option #2. For this reason as well, Point-C is defined not by the model, but merely by this anticipated reiteration in price action, defining a target low as TG-Lo = 1.05333.


OVERALL:Simple use of well-established market geometries have allowed the definition of a trading opportunity here, yielding the following targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.11972 - 13 SEP 2014 (per Model)

and

2 - TG-Lo = 1.05333 - 13 SEP 2014 (per price behavior evaluation).

The outcome of a Flat is a resumption of the major trend. IF and once this trend comes to validate this predictive analysis/forecasting, we would then look at loftier targets, which the model has pre-defined, pending directional confirmation.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
09 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twiter:
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$USDCAD - Target hit; Predictive model offers limited upside potential; Bearish targets pending:

snapshot


@tradingview $CAD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Will the Cad follow Xau deeper?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
As the Usd looks to invert.
Reply
Sokun Sokun
This phase driven largely by international capital flowing from the periphery (economies) to the core (economy) as economic activity and confidence contract under the weight of debt and economic mismanagement remains largely unrecognized.  This will change, if and when, emphasis on the latter, UDX smashes through cause's upper trading channel. 

Reply
Sokun Sokun
The next layer of resistance is the 90-92 resistance zone.  An upside breakout of this zone will turn bears into bulls and accelerate the trend after some profit-taking.

Reply
03 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDCAD ponders bearish trigger @1.13120 w/ deep tgs vs. bullish @1.14581 w/ limtd upside:

snapshot


@tradingview $CAD #BOC
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
With over 500 pips (by price 1.13842) still applies the pattern kiss of death?
+1 Reply
@takef - KoD is a triple-based (i.e.: triple-bottom or triple-top) pattern. Any excessive adverse excursion from the base should prompt the trader to suspect a pattern failure - David
Reply
28 NOV 2014 - Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this potential bearish Kiss of Death:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Nice!
In your experience, how effective would you say this pattern is, David?
+1 Reply
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