Broke Triangle; Remains In Channel; Mixed picture | $CAD #forex

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
597 11 10

Last March 12th, 2014, I defined the following preliminary targets:

1 - 1.11998


2 - 1.14694

These targets remain in force and in sight, based on a combination of technical validations, namely:

1 - A potential Elliott Wave Wave-4 completion of a diagonal triangle
2 - Added validation of a long-term channel at recent rally point
3 - Model remains bullish , but calls for interim decline

1 - About 2 months ago, I released a Wolfe pattern target @ 1.07445. While price has moved towards it, it remains incomplete. This comes in direct contradiction with above technical picture, since validation of this bearish target would pull price out of the channel fenestration.

Use TradingView's replay feature to see how well price action has moved towards said target
- Target released:

- Updated:

2 - While model remains bullish , the interim decline could break below the recent structural lows, thus invalidating above technical-based analysis. In doing so, it would affirm the robustness of the model, though, which in the H4 timeframe did define 1.07445, but in the daily frame sees higher highs.

Based on the third point above, a signal remains pending. However, considering the disproportionate amount of classic pattern traders I am assuming exists, I thought it was worth highlighting the recent technical picture, which seems to support a continuation of the price action upwards, based on simple pattern ( wedge and channel).

As indicated earlier, the model remains bullish , but does call for an interim relaxation to the downside. I expect price action to remain above recent lows - Directional signal will be kept at "Neutral" until signal falls in line and reinforces the dominant technical picture.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

Twitter: @4xForecaster
david thanks for this update
+1 Reply
4xForecaster manijeh.kazemi.33
You are very welcome - David
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2014 - Update:

* * * Watch for the Elliott Wave Flat development in DAILY chart * * *

As I mentioned earlier, there is a potential for a significant correction at this point. This would potentially occur on a pure technical basis, via the hand of a large Elliott Wave Regular Flat, where a series of internal 3-3-5 waves have so far completed the first two of the overall pattern.

What we are looking at this point is an impulsive move AGAINST the major trend, which would tell you for sure that this Flat is underway. One way to consider an entry here would be to let Wave-1 express itself, reverse to Wave-2 (which should NOT exceed the origination point of Wave-1 at 1.12697, and enter at the break of Wave-1's termination point.

Considering that we are dealing with a DAILY chart, it might take a little while before this set up comes into actionable shape.

For those interested in the development of this flat, I will continue to provide technical commentaries in the chart in which it has been featured 23 days ago - Here is its link:


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
NOTE - Obviously, what we anticipate at this point is a VALIDATION of the development of Wave-C, which should don impulsive features, as opposed to its last two predecessor waves, which carried corrective features - David
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2014 - Update:

Per model, $USDCAD is set to take a 2-step advance, one that would find entrenched bearish resistance at 1.14299, and a stronger resistance at 1.21988.

I will produce a chart once this one has consumed all targets within its price field

For the time being, watch for a significant correction (low probability at the current level). A large institutional bank has taken a LONG position here as of 1.1200 (Credit Suisse; Long position; Medium Term).

+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - Morgan Stanley also carries a LONG position on this one at the moment. Get ready for long institutional positioning; this would support the larger targets just defined above - David
+1 Reply
I'd appreciate your comments. :)
I also agree with this analysis. I think fundamentals support bearish scenario for CAD since export oriented Canadian economy demands for a weaker currency. USA data is solid and economy is improving slowly. This triangle is similar to a falling wedge in uptrend.
+1 Reply
i agree with this analyses. i'm long now . no change in canada rate
+2 Reply
With the CAD rate decision and USD non farm coming this week, do you think it's better to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear path?
+1 Reply
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