Broke Triangle; Remains In Channel; Mixed picture | $CAD #forex
Friends,
Last March 12th, 2014, I defined the following preliminary targets:
1 - 1.11998
and
2 - 1.14694
These targets remain in force and in sight, based on a combination of technical validations, namely:
PROS:
1 - A potential Elliott Wave Wave-4 completion of a diagonal triangle
2 - Added validation of a long-term channel at recent rally point
3 - Model remains bullish, but calls for interim decline
CONS:
1 - About 2 months ago, I released a Wolfe pattern target @ 1.07445. While price has moved towards it, it remains incomplete. This comes in direct contradiction with above technical picture, since validation of this bearish target would pull price out of the channel fenestration.
Use TradingView's replay feature to see how well price action has moved towards said target
- Target released:
- Updated:
2 - While model remains bullish, the interim decline could break below the recent structural lows, thus invalidating above technical-based analysis. In doing so, it would affirm the robustness of the model, though, which in the H4 timeframe did define 1.07445, but in the daily frame sees higher highs.
Based on the third point above, a signal remains pending. However, considering the disproportionate amount of classic pattern traders I am assuming exists, I thought it was worth highlighting the recent technical picture, which seems to support a continuation of the price action upwards, based on simple pattern (wedge and channel).
As indicated earlier, the model remains bullish, but does call for an interim relaxation to the downside. I expect price action to remain above recent lows - Directional signal will be kept at "Neutral" until signal falls in line and reinforces the dominant technical picture.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
---------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
---------------------------
Last March 12th, 2014, I defined the following preliminary targets:
1 - 1.11998
and
2 - 1.14694
These targets remain in force and in sight, based on a combination of technical validations, namely:
PROS:
1 - A potential Elliott Wave Wave-4 completion of a diagonal triangle
2 - Added validation of a long-term channel at recent rally point
3 - Model remains bullish, but calls for interim decline
CONS:
1 - About 2 months ago, I released a Wolfe pattern target @ 1.07445. While price has moved towards it, it remains incomplete. This comes in direct contradiction with above technical picture, since validation of this bearish target would pull price out of the channel fenestration.
Use TradingView's replay feature to see how well price action has moved towards said target
- Target released:
2 - While model remains bullish, the interim decline could break below the recent structural lows, thus invalidating above technical-based analysis. In doing so, it would affirm the robustness of the model, though, which in the H4 timeframe did define 1.07445, but in the daily frame sees higher highs.
Based on the third point above, a signal remains pending. However, considering the disproportionate amount of classic pattern traders I am assuming exists, I thought it was worth highlighting the recent technical picture, which seems to support a continuation of the price action upwards, based on simple pattern (wedge and channel).
As indicated earlier, the model remains bullish, but does call for an interim relaxation to the downside. I expect price action to remain above recent lows - Directional signal will be kept at "Neutral" until signal falls in line and reinforces the dominant technical picture.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
---------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
---------------------------
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