BFCMInvest

USD/CAD: long or short ?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The trend has seen a major retracement of over 4.5 cents in the last 10 days: at the moment it seems to have stopped on the support at 1.317 and from here a rebound brought it back to the 1.327 area. Now the price is between the resistance identified by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement and the support formed by the daily EMA200, respectively placed at 1.33 and 1.3115: until they are broken, the direction can not be established in the short term. The fundamentals are similar for both currencies: on one hand we have the Bank of Canada, which has kept the interest rate unchanged and should continue with this policy throughout the first quarter/half of 2019; on the other hand, the FED is thinking of changing its monetary policy, avoiding further increases for this first part of 2019. This will give fresh air to the stock markets. It is not to be excluded that this policy is maintained throughout 2019, although at least one or two rises in the second half of June seems the most probable scenario.

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