USDCAD strong impulse towards my target at 1.385
I have been interested in USDCAD for a while, if you check my previous ideas of the past 5, 2 are about this pair.
*** Technical analysis ***
The momentum (finally) got pretty strong. The price is now quite extended, the RSI on the weekly chart is in the process of crossing 70 and it rarely goes further than 80 and the price is far away from its moving averages.
The move up might be soon over, maybe there are just 1 to 3 weeks left, but until then we can squeeze some profit from this pair before finally looking elsewhere.
On the 4 hour chart you can see the Guppy Moving Averages have crossed and the fast ones are supporting the price, quite perfectly I might add:
On the daily chart we can see we are currently in an extended 3rd Elliott Wave.
My target will be the next serious resistance at about 1.385, which also happens to be close to the 1.618 extension from wave (1). But since the momentum is so strong feel free to hold as long as the price is going up, it could go a bit past target, think of a really big truck going full speed towards a tree, it will stop but not immediately. A bit past target you got 1.618 at 1.388 so that might be where the price is going.
On the 1 hour chart the trend is rather. Where to buy? I can't tell. Any strategy will do I guess? But close to some sort of support on the daily chart is probably a safer bet than just at random. It is getting stronger and stronger, so waiting for a big pullback will probably get you in when the reversal happens.
What my opinion is other than where to buy: target is at least 1.385 (possibly a bit more), no point going for a huge risk to reward (something around 4 seems to make sense to me).
*** Fundamental analysis ***
Canada economic data is overall negative and significantly worse than what was expected (consensus):
- Bad job numbers => The latest unemployement rate release, which came out the 9 september, shows unemployement at 5.4%. previous number was 4.9% and consensus was this announcement would be 5%.
- Bad retail sales => The lastest numbers are from friday (23/09) and they are absolutely terrible. Yes this is a high impact thing, according to sites that offer an economic data/calendar service. The numbers, which are for July, show a 2.5% drop, versus the last ones at +1% and consensus at -2%.
- Bad oil prices => And what else happened on this friday, other than the bad retail sales announcement? The Oil price slipped almost 4% (WTI) or 2% (Brent) below the recent previous low. Oil prices are not as good as they used to be these past months, so another reason for the loonie to suffer.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar can't stop getting love:
- Oh the S&P 500 is down so everyone buys the USD. And when it goes up they buy the USD anyway. High inflation, low inflation, does not matter. No matter what USD gets 1 free bonus point, it's like an rpg, USD has a special skill "+1 for free". +1, just because. It does not fight fair.
- Same interest rate as CAD => 3.25%. +0.
- Retail sales are alright, pretty decent and a positive surprise => (For August) 0.3% versus last month -0.4% and consensus at 0%. So the USD gets +1.
- Unemployement is not as terrible as Canada's => Unemployement rate for August was announced at 3.7% versus last month 3.5% and consensus 3.5%. Jobless claims are also alright, the latest numbers (for September 9, released the 22) are 213K versus 218K consensus and the previous ones (from most recent to oldest): 208K, 218K, 228K, 237K; it's in a downtrend and this 213K probably gets a revision to the downside like the previous ones had. Another +1 for the USD.
They are plenty of other numbers but I believe these are the main ones, and anyway the other numbers tell the same story: CAD bad, USD good.
I would jump on any opportunity to buy.
*** Learning from previous trades ***
Now is a good time to look back on my previous ideas and maybe learn something
1- The one that turned out great:
Entry DOES matter. If you just were patient, waited and held, it went all the way to target. The price made an ABC and went from the bottom of my arrow to the top of my arrow. Just beautiful. It was easy to get 5R here.
2- The one that turned out terrible:
Oh the running gag again. This is my flaw. I keep holding and I keep messing up. I do not know why I keep insisting and throwing my profit in the fire. I'm good at entries, really good at placing my stops, exceptional at targets; but I have no clue how to trail... be it on the way to target or past target.
After years of messing up I'm just going for some basic higher low trailing system on the way to target, and once at target I should have very weak hands, basically unless it explodes I should get out, price dropped 0.25R? I'm out. One of the reason I do not want to use a limit order is since I am aware my targets are absolutely amazing (and I even improved them further recently) I am worried my brokers will notice and "steal" it from me. My targets are the single reason why I went all in trading and have a 3 year gap in my CV. And I'm ruining it with my idiotic "Uhh strong hands! Just hold! To the moon!"
Do not be like me, do not be a fool. We aren't Warren Buffett. These are not companies we are investing into.
Seriously? What is wrong with me? Autism? How do I break such a money wasting silly habit? Punch myself each time 250 euros of unrealized profit disappear?
Ah, clic play and look at this depressing disaster. And I have been doing this noob garbage for years, since I started 5 years ago. I am so dense:
*** Technical analysis ***
The momentum (finally) got pretty strong. The price is now quite extended, the RSI on the weekly chart is in the process of crossing 70 and it rarely goes further than 80 and the price is far away from its moving averages.
The move up might be soon over, maybe there are just 1 to 3 weeks left, but until then we can squeeze some profit from this pair before finally looking elsewhere.
On the 4 hour chart you can see the Guppy Moving Averages have crossed and the fast ones are supporting the price, quite perfectly I might add:
On the daily chart we can see we are currently in an extended 3rd Elliott Wave.
My target will be the next serious resistance at about 1.385, which also happens to be close to the 1.618 extension from wave (1). But since the momentum is so strong feel free to hold as long as the price is going up, it could go a bit past target, think of a really big truck going full speed towards a tree, it will stop but not immediately. A bit past target you got 1.618 at 1.388 so that might be where the price is going.
On the 1 hour chart the trend is rather. Where to buy? I can't tell. Any strategy will do I guess? But close to some sort of support on the daily chart is probably a safer bet than just at random. It is getting stronger and stronger, so waiting for a big pullback will probably get you in when the reversal happens.
What my opinion is other than where to buy: target is at least 1.385 (possibly a bit more), no point going for a huge risk to reward (something around 4 seems to make sense to me).
*** Fundamental analysis ***
Canada economic data is overall negative and significantly worse than what was expected (consensus):
- Bad job numbers => The latest unemployement rate release, which came out the 9 september, shows unemployement at 5.4%. previous number was 4.9% and consensus was this announcement would be 5%.
- Bad retail sales => The lastest numbers are from friday (23/09) and they are absolutely terrible. Yes this is a high impact thing, according to sites that offer an economic data/calendar service. The numbers, which are for July, show a 2.5% drop, versus the last ones at +1% and consensus at -2%.
- Bad oil prices => And what else happened on this friday, other than the bad retail sales announcement? The Oil price slipped almost 4% (WTI) or 2% (Brent) below the recent previous low. Oil prices are not as good as they used to be these past months, so another reason for the loonie to suffer.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar can't stop getting love:
- Oh the S&P 500 is down so everyone buys the USD. And when it goes up they buy the USD anyway. High inflation, low inflation, does not matter. No matter what USD gets 1 free bonus point, it's like an rpg, USD has a special skill "+1 for free". +1, just because. It does not fight fair.
- Same interest rate as CAD => 3.25%. +0.
- Retail sales are alright, pretty decent and a positive surprise => (For August) 0.3% versus last month -0.4% and consensus at 0%. So the USD gets +1.
- Unemployement is not as terrible as Canada's => Unemployement rate for August was announced at 3.7% versus last month 3.5% and consensus 3.5%. Jobless claims are also alright, the latest numbers (for September 9, released the 22) are 213K versus 218K consensus and the previous ones (from most recent to oldest): 208K, 218K, 228K, 237K; it's in a downtrend and this 213K probably gets a revision to the downside like the previous ones had. Another +1 for the USD.
They are plenty of other numbers but I believe these are the main ones, and anyway the other numbers tell the same story: CAD bad, USD good.
I would jump on any opportunity to buy.
*** Learning from previous trades ***
Now is a good time to look back on my previous ideas and maybe learn something
1- The one that turned out great:
Entry DOES matter. If you just were patient, waited and held, it went all the way to target. The price made an ABC and went from the bottom of my arrow to the top of my arrow. Just beautiful. It was easy to get 5R here.
2- The one that turned out terrible:
Oh the running gag again. This is my flaw. I keep holding and I keep messing up. I do not know why I keep insisting and throwing my profit in the fire. I'm good at entries, really good at placing my stops, exceptional at targets; but I have no clue how to trail... be it on the way to target or past target.
After years of messing up I'm just going for some basic higher low trailing system on the way to target, and once at target I should have very weak hands, basically unless it explodes I should get out, price dropped 0.25R? I'm out. One of the reason I do not want to use a limit order is since I am aware my targets are absolutely amazing (and I even improved them further recently) I am worried my brokers will notice and "steal" it from me. My targets are the single reason why I went all in trading and have a 3 year gap in my CV. And I'm ruining it with my idiotic "Uhh strong hands! Just hold! To the moon!"
Do not be like me, do not be a fool. We aren't Warren Buffett. These are not companies we are investing into.
Seriously? What is wrong with me? Autism? How do I break such a money wasting silly habit? Punch myself each time 250 euros of unrealized profit disappear?
Ah, clic play and look at this depressing disaster. And I have been doing this noob garbage for years, since I started 5 years ago. I am so dense:
Comment:
This short term one did not go all the way (still don't know why so many are attracted to this, to me it just screams "less / not even profitable")
I held as always and hated every single moment of it.
But now we can get another leg up to 1.40 or even 1.41.
Will force myself to only hold if it moves strongly, not holding strong pullbacks.
But what if... After giving back gains so many times the 1 time I do not hold is when it keeps going? Checkmate.
I held as always and hated every single moment of it.
But now we can get another leg up to 1.40 or even 1.41.
Will force myself to only hold if it moves strongly, not holding strong pullbacks.
But what if... After giving back gains so many times the 1 time I do not hold is when it keeps going? Checkmate.
Taking money from all the retail traders going short because "overbought".
Overbought exchange rate.