USD/CAD squeezed between 55– and 200-hour SMAs
An intersection of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 1.2140 proved to be a strong support for the US Dollar, as it failed to push below the given mark. The rate subsequently edged higher, but was reversed at the weekly PP back to both SMAs. As a result, the bounds of the 55– and 200-hour SMAs are starting to squeeze the Greenback in a narrow range.
The rate has managed to recover gradually from the two-and-a-year low near 1.2060; however, its failure to accelerate indicate that bears might still succeed at pressuring the rate south. It is likely that traders lack decisiveness in the upcoming trading hours; thus maintaining the pair in a relatively stable position in the 1.2150/1.2210 area.
In case the 200-hour SMA is breached, this might work as the necessary confirmation of a possible mediate-term surge.
The rate has managed to recover gradually from the two-and-a-year low near 1.2060; however, its failure to accelerate indicate that bears might still succeed at pressuring the rate south. It is likely that traders lack decisiveness in the upcoming trading hours; thus maintaining the pair in a relatively stable position in the 1.2150/1.2210 area.
In case the 200-hour SMA is breached, this might work as the necessary confirmation of a possible mediate-term surge.
Trade closed: stop reached:
After testing the bottom boundary of the ascending channel, USD/CAD accelerated for a couple of hours until the 23.6% Fibo was reached. Subsequently, the rate remained in a relatively narrow motion sideways.
At this time, however, the 200-hour SMA was surpassed by not only the pair but also by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs—a bullish sign that could finally push the Greenback further away from the two-year low at 1.2067.
It is likely that the rates appreciates during this trading session and tests the monthly S2 or even the weekly R1 at 1.2230 and 1.2263, respectively. This up-move might hold until an intersection of the upper channel boundary and the 38.2% Fibo marks some adjustments to this upward momentum.
After testing the bottom boundary of the ascending channel, USD/CAD accelerated for a couple of hours until the 23.6% Fibo was reached. Subsequently, the rate remained in a relatively narrow motion sideways.
At this time, however, the 200-hour SMA was surpassed by not only the pair but also by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs—a bullish sign that could finally push the Greenback further away from the two-year low at 1.2067.
It is likely that the rates appreciates during this trading session and tests the monthly S2 or even the weekly R1 at 1.2230 and 1.2263, respectively. This up-move might hold until an intersection of the upper channel boundary and the 38.2% Fibo marks some adjustments to this upward momentum.
Comment:
USD/CAD was supported by the combined cluster of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs early on Monday. This was followed by a rapid upside momentum which was strengthened even further during the BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane’s comments about the Canadian economy at 1800GMT. The rate surged considerably in the wake of the remarks—a move which pushed the US Dollar through the upper channel boundary.
Given the fact that the rate has struggled to move above the 1.2309 mark since late Monday, it is likely that the Greenback edges lower, setting the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 23.6% Fibo near the 1.2200 mark as a possible downside target.
Meanwhile, the upside is restricted by the monthly S1 and the 50.2% Fibo circa 1.2360.
USD/CAD was supported by the combined cluster of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs early on Monday. This was followed by a rapid upside momentum which was strengthened even further during the BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane’s comments about the Canadian economy at 1800GMT. The rate surged considerably in the wake of the remarks—a move which pushed the US Dollar through the upper channel boundary.
Given the fact that the rate has struggled to move above the 1.2309 mark since late Monday, it is likely that the Greenback edges lower, setting the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 23.6% Fibo near the 1.2200 mark as a possible downside target.
Meanwhile, the upside is restricted by the monthly S1 and the 50.2% Fibo circa 1.2360.
Comment:
The US Dollar was trading sideways against its Canadian counterpart since late Monday. This sentiment, however, changed mid-today when the rate dashed through the 55-hour SMA and remained slightly above the monthly S2 and the 100-hour SMA.
It is likely that this support is breached, thus paving the way for a more significant cluster set by the 200-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibo. This might be a turning point that should guide the Greenback towards the 55-hour SMA.
Given that the Federal Market Open Committee is to report on the US economic projections at 1800GMT, the previously-made assumption about the rate’s possible direction could be changed dramatically.
The US Dollar was trading sideways against its Canadian counterpart since late Monday. This sentiment, however, changed mid-today when the rate dashed through the 55-hour SMA and remained slightly above the monthly S2 and the 100-hour SMA.
It is likely that this support is breached, thus paving the way for a more significant cluster set by the 200-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibo. This might be a turning point that should guide the Greenback towards the 55-hour SMA.
Given that the Federal Market Open Committee is to report on the US economic projections at 1800GMT, the previously-made assumption about the rate’s possible direction could be changed dramatically.
Comment:
USD/CAD was fluctuating in a narrow range between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a couple of hours on Wednesday prior to surging 108 pips after the comments made by the FOMC. As a result of this hourly surge, the US Dollar reached a new two-week high and halted near the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
The rate has since remained between the monthly S1 and the weekly R2, thus forming a minor consolidation phase. The rate might still trade in this range for a couple of hours; however, it should eventually edge lower down to the 55-hour SMA and the 38.2% Fibo at the 1.23 mark.
In case this support fails to halt the Greenback, the next significant support is provided by the weekly R1 and the 100-hour SMA circa 1.2260.
USD/CAD was fluctuating in a narrow range between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a couple of hours on Wednesday prior to surging 108 pips after the comments made by the FOMC. As a result of this hourly surge, the US Dollar reached a new two-week high and halted near the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
The rate has since remained between the monthly S1 and the weekly R2, thus forming a minor consolidation phase. The rate might still trade in this range for a couple of hours; however, it should eventually edge lower down to the 55-hour SMA and the 38.2% Fibo at the 1.23 mark.
In case this support fails to halt the Greenback, the next significant support is provided by the weekly R1 and the 100-hour SMA circa 1.2260.
Comment:
Thursday’s trading session introduced no changes in the pair’s direction, as USD/CAD remained between the monthly S1 and the weekly R2 for the whole session. This situation changed today when the Greenback began falling against its Canadian counterpart, dashing through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs along the way until the weekly R1 and the lower channel boundary was reached.
Weak data on Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales mid-session sent the pair for an hourly surge up to the 1.2320 mark. The prevalence of the bullish sentiment in the upcoming hours could confirm the beginning of a new wave up.
The monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibo near 1.2360 is expected to be the upside limit for the following 24 hours, while the bottom barrier might be set by the 200-hour SMA at 1.2234.
Thursday’s trading session introduced no changes in the pair’s direction, as USD/CAD remained between the monthly S1 and the weekly R2 for the whole session. This situation changed today when the Greenback began falling against its Canadian counterpart, dashing through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs along the way until the weekly R1 and the lower channel boundary was reached.
Weak data on Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales mid-session sent the pair for an hourly surge up to the 1.2320 mark. The prevalence of the bullish sentiment in the upcoming hours could confirm the beginning of a new wave up.
The monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibo near 1.2360 is expected to be the upside limit for the following 24 hours, while the bottom barrier might be set by the 200-hour SMA at 1.2234.
Comment:
Following a massive surge during the second half of Friday’s trading session, the US Dollar halted unexpectedly near the 1.2348 mark—a level slightly below the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Subsequently, the rate has traded sideways, being supported by the 55-hour SMA.
It is likely that the given movement is only a minor consolidation period that will be breached in the upcoming hours. The current support area is likewise reinforced by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP. In case the 55-hour is breached, the subsequent levels could provide an unbreakable barrier.
If a surge is to occur, gains could be capped near the weekly R1 and the 50.0% Fibo at 1.2420. Conversely, the most probable downside target is the 200-hour SMA. Such plunge, however, is unlikely.
Following a massive surge during the second half of Friday’s trading session, the US Dollar halted unexpectedly near the 1.2348 mark—a level slightly below the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Subsequently, the rate has traded sideways, being supported by the 55-hour SMA.
It is likely that the given movement is only a minor consolidation period that will be breached in the upcoming hours. The current support area is likewise reinforced by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP. In case the 55-hour is breached, the subsequent levels could provide an unbreakable barrier.
If a surge is to occur, gains could be capped near the weekly R1 and the 50.0% Fibo at 1.2420. Conversely, the most probable downside target is the 200-hour SMA. Such plunge, however, is unlikely.
Comment:
The Greenback continues to appreciate against the Canadian Dollar in a slight upside movement. The rate found support at the 55-hour SMAs and afterwards at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, demonstrating that there are no obstacles restricting it up to the weekly R1 and the 50.0% Fibo near 1.2420.
A failure to test the upper channel boundary could signal to a possible change in sentiment. In case the US Dollar reverses at the aforementioned resistance cluster, it might enter a short-term consolidation period, thus ranging between the weekly R1 and the monthly S1. The latter is located near the 55– and 100-hour SMAs that will require substantial force to let the pair through these moving averages.
The Greenback continues to appreciate against the Canadian Dollar in a slight upside movement. The rate found support at the 55-hour SMAs and afterwards at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, demonstrating that there are no obstacles restricting it up to the weekly R1 and the 50.0% Fibo near 1.2420.
A failure to test the upper channel boundary could signal to a possible change in sentiment. In case the US Dollar reverses at the aforementioned resistance cluster, it might enter a short-term consolidation period, thus ranging between the weekly R1 and the monthly S1. The latter is located near the 55– and 100-hour SMAs that will require substantial force to let the pair through these moving averages.
USD/CAD was trading in a narrow range on Thursday morning. The situation changed mid-session when the positive impact of the US CPI data at 1230GMT initiated a buying spree for bulls. As a result, the rate was pushed above a significant resistance cluster formed by the monthly S2, the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibo.
This upside momentum, however, was short-lived, as the rate fell below the pressure of the aforementioned resistance and returned at the lower channel boundary.
Technical indicators suggest that a further decline is likely. In case the US Dollar depreciates, no barriers are restricting this decrease until the 2.5-year low at 1.2062 is reached. Nevertheless, the Greenback could fall below the bottom channel line, but it should eventually re-test the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.