AMTrader

USD/CAD 3 Year to Date Analysis with Multiple Harmonic Patterns

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD Multi Pattern Analysis

A glance back on USD/CAD price action of exactly 3 years with
4 harmonic patterns, each still valid.

The first pattern, a bullish Alternative Butterfly, was nearly
invalidated last Septembre, however, it remains in play and
leg X still remains a viable target.

The second pattern, a bearish Gartley, is also still valid,
however, all three targets have already been hit and thus
it no longer poses a threat for price to turn or continue
to be bearish.

The third pattern, a bullish Shark, re-enabled the bullish
Alt Butterfly pattern back into play. A close above of leg
X at 1.37934 would clear the way for price to reach
1.46899.

However, the fourth pattern, another bearish Gartley, is
testing the bullish Shark and ultimately the bullish Alt
Butterfly pattern as well. A close below leg A at 1.20613
would most likely see the bullish Alt Butterfly pattern
be invalidated, but this doesnt yet indicate the end of a
bullish trend continuation. Only a close below 1.16335
would vanquish all hopes of a bullish continuation from
a perspective of the harmonious patterns, since a close
below 1.16335 would invalidate the bullish Shark pattern.

I have added two trade setups, the short trade has a RvR
ratio of 3.23, however it is up to the individual traded how
and where to place a stop/ loss that suits their risk
management. Trade two, with a RvR ratio of 3.68, is also
best risk managed by the individual trader.
Both trade setups primarily emphasize the target and entry
levels.
Also, both trade setups represent an either/ or
scenario, meaning that if price closes above or below the
designated entry levels only one of these trades will
be valid, hence, look for price to close either below
1.26237 or above 1.2978 to enter long or short.

Trade 1 (Short)
Entry: Close below 1.26237
S/L: 1.31286
T/P 1: 1.20613
T/P 2: 1.15902
T/P 3: 1.13442
T/P 4: 1.09909

Trade 2 (Long)
Entry: Close above 1.2978
S/L: 1.25124
T/P 1: 1.33756
T/P 2: 1.37934
T/P 3: 1.46899

Happy trading
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