USDCAD D1 Critical Point.

OANDA:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
W1 is a little concerning in my view, I see no bullish divergence between W and Y and wave Y never ended anywhere near the 100fib strongly indicating were off to break the top or a much larger more complex correction before breaking the top but...... There's always a but because we don't have the bullish divergence I like to see so I can't totally rule out a W1 Z down.

D1 there's the possibility of a ABC up with running flat in wave B. Wave C is getting very close to the 100fib and there is no sign that wave C up is over at this stage so you need a clean sell setup on the lower time frames before considering taking the sell for the W1 Z down against the invalidation point.

H1 is where I start to see bearish divergence, look for impulse down and bear flag to confirm more downside to come before entering the sell moving to BE ASAP . Altimately targeting the 100fib for W1 Z wave.

If the invalidation point gets hit before giving bearish setup, stay out, we could be going much higher and I don't see a buy setup at these highs.

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Dec 29
Comment: D1 is hovering around the 100fib with bearish divergence.
H4 we don't have bearish divergence which is a little concerning.
H1 we are still seeing continuing bearish divergence but yet to see the impulse down. We need the nice impulse down and bear flag before entering the sell as I mentioned in the detail's of this idea. Patience is needed as we don't want to get caught on the wrong side of this trade (see the detail's warning about the W1).
This is what i'm looking at on the H1 and will update this idea again if and when we get the impulse down.
Jan 03
Comment: M15 we got a couple bear flag's today, If your not in wait for the H1 flag.
Jan 09
Comment: M15 were starting to get a fair bit of bullish divergence so I'm expecting to see H4 correction up before we get at least the C down.
The H4 A wave down may not be over so if your looking for the buy scalps you need to wait for bullish confirmation on the lower time frames before entering the market.
Jan 24
Comment: We are getting a bearish corrective structure, start looking for sell setup's on the lower time frames for the H4 C wave down, 1st targeting the 100fib.
Jan 25
Comment: Ok so if you were paying attention you would have got a nice sell setup for the C or Y down, at this stage we will never know if it's a C or a Y down but if your in the trade you should be at breakeven so it's a risk free trade!
H1 chart and 1st TP.
Just to let all my follower's know I don't just put out a heap of idea's on a heap of pair's to get more like's, follower's, point's ect. I try to only put out trade idea's with the high possibility of playing out and I do trade 99% of the ideas I put out there. Here is a screen shot of my sell for the A wave and the one for the C wave on live account (my account number has been taken out of the screenshot for obvious reason's!)
Sell for A wave down entry. (I got out of this trade taking profit soon after taking SS)
Sell for C wave down entry at breakeven.
Feb 08
Comment: Looks like we maybe getting larger correction possibly a running flat but I can't totally rule out the expanding flat. I'm still bearish and will sell any bear flag.
Feb 12
Comment: Looks like H4 was running flat and we getting H1 bear flag break, look for your sell setups.


Intraday bias more short. Great analysis. Check mine
Boon2 ForexThief
@ForexThief, Yes I'm not a big believer in support or resistance but on H4 I think it may be a running flat for more downside at this stage as per my last update on this idea.

The TL there you have drawn if is your TL I don't think is valid for a break as its not showing a trend where you have it placed?
Boon2 Boon2
@Boon2, I would put TL for flag break like this
Can you keep updated on the 1 flag please

Boon2 Ta-Trade
@Ta-Trade, I'll do my best, We have NFP out tonight so it could be a little tricky.
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