USDCAD - Daily Timeframe Overview - Update on Short Opport.ies
During last week a different type of consolidation began on certain pairs. At times, consolidation structures evolve into more complex patterns leaving many traders baffled and worried that their original analysis is wrong. What we do, in these cases, is re-look at the previous medium term analyses on the daily and weekly timeframes, and double check that they have not changed. The best example to look at in this case is the USDCAD pair. Keeping solidly in mind all wave theory rules and patterns, let's relook at our longer term analysis of march, in which we ourselves were questioning if the long term correction on this pair was over and if a longer term uptrend had already commenced, or if instead the downtrend was not over and we were in a big weekly correction:
Today, we are confirming said analysis saying that, as of today, we still do not have a sign that the uptrend has commenced (around sep. 2017). As of now, all signs in all timeframes indicate that the downtrend can still resume and it might have done so with last week's closing. True, it spiked up a little, but very little indeed, all considered, but moreover that does not indicate any change in structural pattern. Even when the Canadian data came out pushing for upside, the day still closed in negative.
Going back to wave analysis, we are putting in the charts our potential wave progression for the coming months. As you will quickly be able to notice, we still believe there is a chance for a big downwards movement to retest the 1.206 low. We cannot be certain that that is going to happen for sure, but what we can instead very reasonably expect, at this point is that to the minimum the pair will now correct at least to the 1.278 area, for a running flat. And possibly further. If we are totally wrong about our analysis and the pair has instead commenced the longer uptrend, to the minimum the pair will in any case have to go through a big and longer daily correction, before resuming the upside (the progression of which we have marked with bright blue arrows). Having said that, we will trade only sells from now on on this pair, expecting to in any case make profit: a smaller profit if the pair will only daily correct to the downside, a bigger one if it will resume the downtrend.
If you feel that our analyses and views may be a useful complement to your trading strategies and in order to be notified in real time with our updates on the lower timeframes, please remember to click on the Follow button.
Remember that you can double check the bigger structures that are at play are on the weekly and daily time frames also by scrolling around the charts in the lower 4hr and 60min timeframes (right and left, up and down).
Trade with care and only with a backtested strategy that has proven to work in relation to your invested capital, risk appetite and potential small losses you might incur in before profiting from a good trade.
Thank you for viewing.
Today, we are confirming said analysis saying that, as of today, we still do not have a sign that the uptrend has commenced (around sep. 2017). As of now, all signs in all timeframes indicate that the downtrend can still resume and it might have done so with last week's closing. True, it spiked up a little, but very little indeed, all considered, but moreover that does not indicate any change in structural pattern. Even when the Canadian data came out pushing for upside, the day still closed in negative.
Going back to wave analysis, we are putting in the charts our potential wave progression for the coming months. As you will quickly be able to notice, we still believe there is a chance for a big downwards movement to retest the 1.206 low. We cannot be certain that that is going to happen for sure, but what we can instead very reasonably expect, at this point is that to the minimum the pair will now correct at least to the 1.278 area, for a running flat. And possibly further. If we are totally wrong about our analysis and the pair has instead commenced the longer uptrend, to the minimum the pair will in any case have to go through a big and longer daily correction, before resuming the upside (the progression of which we have marked with bright blue arrows). Having said that, we will trade only sells from now on on this pair, expecting to in any case make profit: a smaller profit if the pair will only daily correct to the downside, a bigger one if it will resume the downtrend.
If you feel that our analyses and views may be a useful complement to your trading strategies and in order to be notified in real time with our updates on the lower timeframes, please remember to click on the Follow button.
Remember that you can double check the bigger structures that are at play are on the weekly and daily time frames also by scrolling around the charts in the lower 4hr and 60min timeframes (right and left, up and down).
Trade with care and only with a backtested strategy that has proven to work in relation to your invested capital, risk appetite and potential small losses you might incur in before profiting from a good trade.
Thank you for viewing.
Comment:
As forecasted on our daily analysis, the USDCAD pair has, at the end, started a down move. In the 4hr timeframe, we are noticing that the pair is forming a structure that indicates that the weekly correction to the upside might not be over as yet. To be more precise, as it stands now the pair seems to be forming a big 4hr correction in the form of a running flat, for one more up move on the daily timeframe which would take the pair in the 1.36 area or higher. We will therefore be watching the pair in the 1.275 - 1.29 area, expecting the start of the aforementioned potential up move on the daily.