Detailed analysis on usdcad from our global macro view
Detailed analysis on usdcad from both fundamental and technical view
united states manufacturing pmi was confirmed at 55.5 level in jan 2018,reading indicates the strongest expansion in since march 2015,that’s a very bullish sign of us factory growth as it also reaching it’s 3 year all time high, services pmi is also doing very well at the time as last reading was at 53.3 in jan 2018,reading indicates very strong expansion in service sector as well and now let’s see how united states housing sector is behaving or performing which from my point of view is the accurate leading indicator, at which top hedge funds always look at!!!At oct 2017 permits was reported to be at 1317 since then permits has been falling but at a very minimal rate which we don’t consider bearish as overall if you will see the chart of permits(1 year) you will notice sharp incline in permits, so overall our leading survey indicators shows us a healthy economy of united stated coming forward,As this will be a detailed analysis more factors monetary policies obviously must be included, now let’s jump to other factors
Us inflation came better than expected increased 2.1 percent YOY in jan2018, consumer price index or cpi increased to 249.25 index points in jan from 247.91,,core inflation or inflation excluding food and energy increased 1.80 percent YOY same as December but above market expectation with 0.1 percent, overall steady growth in inflation of any country is good for economic growth so what about usa? Usa seems to be on a path where economy is inflating at a steady rate and as market is expecting more hikes from fed,it can be good for dollar but keep in mind fed increased there rate 3 times in 2017 but u.s dollar proven to be the weakest currency in G10 while jpy was the strongest among all, that’s why we have to keep everything in mind while we are doing our analysis as multitude of factors affect exchange rates and in 2017 monetary policies had the biggest contribution affecting exchange rate in 2017
What about non farm payroll brother? (last time my 8 year old nephew asked me about n.f.p lol so now you know how important it is or how misleading it can be specially for new traders )
Non farm payroll increased by 200 thousand in January 2018,came at 160 thousand in December and also beat the market expectation, employment continued to trend up in construction, food services, health care and manufacturing
Fed funds rate kept its range between 1.25-1.5 percent jan2018 but market is expecting hike in upcoming march, market and policy makers expecting rise in inflation rate in upcoming months,so as far as interest rate goes we can see the bullish view forming around and overall good for us economy,
United states gdp growth rate-In the last quarter of 2017 u.s economy expanded at 2.6 percent annual rate,last quarter was 3.2 percent and market expectation was 3 percent for this quarter but u.s gdp showed deceleration in the last quarter
Balance of trade-us trade gap is currently at 9 year high, u.s recorded a USD 53.1 billion trade deficit in December 2017 of course which is not a
good sign for any economy ,I am not going to dive into stock market return or this analysis will be very long, lastly I will talk about monetary policies which is and can affect u.s dollar in upcoming months
Last and final measure of united states economy from our stand point yeah you guessed it right!! Monetary policies, united states 10 year government bond increased 0.07 percent on Thursday feb 2018 from 2.84 in the previous trading session while if we talk about central bank balance sheet of u.s.a it’s been keep shrinking and going downwards, we are going to write remaining content in comment box as now there is no limit left here!!!
united states manufacturing pmi was confirmed at 55.5 level in jan 2018,reading indicates the strongest expansion in since march 2015,that’s a very bullish sign of us factory growth as it also reaching it’s 3 year all time high, services pmi is also doing very well at the time as last reading was at 53.3 in jan 2018,reading indicates very strong expansion in service sector as well and now let’s see how united states housing sector is behaving or performing which from my point of view is the accurate leading indicator, at which top hedge funds always look at!!!At oct 2017 permits was reported to be at 1317 since then permits has been falling but at a very minimal rate which we don’t consider bearish as overall if you will see the chart of permits(1 year) you will notice sharp incline in permits, so overall our leading survey indicators shows us a healthy economy of united stated coming forward,As this will be a detailed analysis more factors monetary policies obviously must be included, now let’s jump to other factors
Us inflation came better than expected increased 2.1 percent YOY in jan2018, consumer price index or cpi increased to 249.25 index points in jan from 247.91,,core inflation or inflation excluding food and energy increased 1.80 percent YOY same as December but above market expectation with 0.1 percent, overall steady growth in inflation of any country is good for economic growth so what about usa? Usa seems to be on a path where economy is inflating at a steady rate and as market is expecting more hikes from fed,it can be good for dollar but keep in mind fed increased there rate 3 times in 2017 but u.s dollar proven to be the weakest currency in G10 while jpy was the strongest among all, that’s why we have to keep everything in mind while we are doing our analysis as multitude of factors affect exchange rates and in 2017 monetary policies had the biggest contribution affecting exchange rate in 2017
What about non farm payroll brother? (last time my 8 year old nephew asked me about n.f.p lol so now you know how important it is or how misleading it can be specially for new traders )
Non farm payroll increased by 200 thousand in January 2018,came at 160 thousand in December and also beat the market expectation, employment continued to trend up in construction, food services, health care and manufacturing
Fed funds rate kept its range between 1.25-1.5 percent jan2018 but market is expecting hike in upcoming march, market and policy makers expecting rise in inflation rate in upcoming months,so as far as interest rate goes we can see the bullish view forming around and overall good for us economy,
United states gdp growth rate-In the last quarter of 2017 u.s economy expanded at 2.6 percent annual rate,last quarter was 3.2 percent and market expectation was 3 percent for this quarter but u.s gdp showed deceleration in the last quarter
Balance of trade-us trade gap is currently at 9 year high, u.s recorded a USD 53.1 billion trade deficit in December 2017 of course which is not a
good sign for any economy ,I am not going to dive into stock market return or this analysis will be very long, lastly I will talk about monetary policies which is and can affect u.s dollar in upcoming months
Last and final measure of united states economy from our stand point yeah you guessed it right!! Monetary policies, united states 10 year government bond increased 0.07 percent on Thursday feb 2018 from 2.84 in the previous trading session while if we talk about central bank balance sheet of u.s.a it’s been keep shrinking and going downwards, we are going to write remaining content in comment box as now there is no limit left here!!!
Trade closed manually:
Didn't reached our entry point