USDCAD wait for high probability confirmation

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
42 0 1
Scenario #1
Candle break the weekly resistance,
and now becoming new possible support.
We will wait for a retest and continuation.
Target next monthly resistance.

Scenario #2
Candle false break the weekly resistance,
and back down.
Weekly resistance level still valid.
Short position with target at lower trend line .

Scenario #3
Possibility entering consolidation area.
Wait for confirmation.
Possible breakout.

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FX ID Group
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Comment: today ucad gap down, strong break below the key resistance.
Let see when daily candle close.
Comment: A strong bear move at US session...
If the daily close with bearish candle.
I will have a short position ready (scenario #2)
Comment: After yesterday strong break at the key resistance + today gap down... perhaps many traders were trapped to open long (with intention to close the gap and continue long)
I personally always trade more conservative, waiting for a confirmation before any possibility to open position.
Trade active: I open short at market price,
after yesterday daily candle gap down and close below the resistance.
looks like the resistance key level is still intact.
scenario #2 is ON
Trade closed: stop reached: Yesterday, the key level resistance break
Thank you UCAD :)
Comment: looks like my SL is too narrow ??
Comment: waiting for another possible setup
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