USDCAD wait for high probability confirmation

Scenario #1
Candle break the weekly resistance,
and now becoming new possible support.
We will wait for a retest and continuation.
Target next monthly resistance.

Scenario #2
Candle false break the weekly resistance,
and back down.
Weekly resistance level still valid.
Short position with target at lower trend line.

Scenario #3
Possibility entering consolidation area.
Wait for confirmation.
Possible breakout.

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Comment:

today ucad gap down, strong break below the key resistance.
Let see when daily candle close.

Comment:

A strong bear move at US session...
If the daily close with bearish candle.
I will have a short position ready (scenario #2)

Comment:

After yesterday strong break at the key resistance + today gap down... perhaps many traders were trapped to open long (with intention to close the gap and continue long)
I personally always trade more conservative, waiting for a confirmation before any possibility to open position.

Trade active:

I open short at market price,
after yesterday daily candle gap down and close below the resistance.
looks like the resistance key level is still intact.
scenario #2 is ON

Trade closed: stop reached:

Yesterday, the key level resistance break
Thank you UCAD :)

Comment:

looks like my SL is too narrow ??

Comment:

waiting for another possible setup