USDCAD is bullish, but watch out this spring

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I'm overall bullish on the USDCAD             (and have been since the end of 2012), but I see downside risk on this pair during the second quarter. 1.28 is a major resistance level that has held since January, and without a monthly break above this level in April, we might just see a correction lower in the coming months. I've noted a negative divergence in the weekly RSI (not pictured), suggesting that a break below 1.24 could signal the beginning of a move down towards 1.20 this spring. Even with such a correction, I would be looking for long opportunities around 1.18-1.20 for this summer. In the meantime, be mindful that the US dollar             is at risk of further losses given the weak NFP data (on top of weak manufacturing sector data) in March. If 1.23-1.24 continues to hold by the end of the month, this may lessen the downside risk as the weekly divergence would theoretically be less strong. I would similarly be looking for long opportunities upon a confirmed monthly break above 1.28 (and continuation above 1.30). Such a signal would open the path for another bullish extension all the way up to 1.40-42 later this year.
Update : I think the USDCAD set a major low on Wednesday, increasing the probability that 1.23 will continue to hold in April. Targeting a move back up to 1.28 before a leg up to 1.30.
good idea.
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