AdrianRaymondFX
Long

USDCAD is bullish, but watch out this spring

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I'm overall bullish on the USDCAD             (and have been since the end of 2012), but I see downside risk on this pair during the second quarter. 1.28 is a major resistance level that has held since January, and without a monthly break above this level in April, we might just see a correction lower in the coming months. I've noted a negative divergence in the weekly RSI (not pictured), suggesting that a break below 1.24 could signal the beginning of a move down towards 1.20 this spring. Even with such a correction, I would be looking for long opportunities around 1.18-1.20 for this summer. In the meantime, be mindful that the US dollar             is at risk of further losses given the weak NFP data (on top of weak manufacturing sector data) in March. If 1.23-1.24 continues to hold by the end of the month, this may lessen the downside risk as the weekly divergence would theoretically be less strong. I would similarly be looking for long opportunities upon a confirmed monthly break above 1.28 (and continuation above 1.30). Such a signal would open the path for another bullish extension all the way up to 1.40-42 later this year.
Update : I think the USDCAD set a major low on Wednesday, increasing the probability that 1.23 will continue to hold in April. Targeting a move back up to 1.28 before a leg up to 1.30.
Reply
good idea.
Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out