botje11

Trading waves inside the Bearish Wedge, Part 4

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
I think finally after almost 3 months of waiting for this one, i think this is the moment has come now. My previous analysis showed a bull flag , which failed completely since the flag never took it's shape. So i was afraid of missing a good entry for a long term short, but after that drop it has rallied up again. Today i already started to short it a bit and now i will take on another batch. Now i will wait some more. If we continue to go up, i will probably add one more time. For the remaining position, i will wait for some real confirmation of weakness. This is a long term trade, so i am not using a stop. I will simply cut my losses when i think the wedge is completely invalidated, not any sooner.


Previous analysis:
Comment: Second entry was at the high which is great, so overal in profit already. But now we see a small triangle, could break both ways. I am not sure yet if THE high is set already though, but most certainly could be, since we dropped this fast already after seeing that big rally yesterday. Which might confirm already, that this rally yesterday, was a short squeeze, pushing out shorts to fill up their own.

Comment: New USDCHF analysis:

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There are some events in the economic calendar today, that can boost USD against CHF. Isn't it better to position ourselves after the evnetual movements?
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botje11 KSeimenov
@KSeimenov, Difficult, because there is a chance for an extreme move, so one could miss out. I have planned this wedge months ago, was afraid i would miss these prices, i have them now so i have started to scale in. Will do one more if we go up even. So not a big problem if we go up. For day trading, maybe best to do it after
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what leverage do you use for this long term trades david?
+1 Reply
botje11 rvhydrn
@rvhydrn, Not about leverage, but i understand what you mean (i think). For me its like any other trade. Long term trade like this, i will risk 0.5/1% of my TRADING capital. So if i have 100.000, than i am allowed to loose 500/1000 if my stop hits. So risking that amount at the start, but when we really start to drop coming weeks, the idea is to increase the size along the way coming months. That way only risking profits and NOT my own money. So Never being able to loose more than 1K, but potentially making a very big win if it plays out. Eventually of course, when we make real drops, i take partial profits and open again at better prices. So When it starts to really drop, i wont let it become a loss anymore
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