Here is my technical trading plan for USD/CHF:
On a weekly chart attached, (
) we can see that USD/CHF from July 2023 to October 2023, this pair rallied and created a new high. From that time, the price hit a "window" of resistance was created on the week of October 30, 2023. Consequently, this is the location where a lot of volume-transactions occurred, according to volume fixed profile. Then, the price proceeded to retrace about a 50% of the July-October 2003 run.
If we look furthermore, we can see that from August to September 2023, a "window" of support was created, and this is where price is currently sitting. This area is also in confluence with horizontal support formed from April - May 2023. Also, of note, is the current, weekly, double wave structure that began from October to this week of November 16, 2023. It could be the ending of a muted wave around 0.8882 to 0.8820. This lines of in confluence with a 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci confluence. However, if this area of support is broken, then the next level of weekly support with volume is around 0.8775, which is in confluence with a 61.8% to 76% fib range.
If we scroll down to a daily chart (
), I circled that area in focus. What we can see is that the price overshot the average weekly range (I colored it with orange horizontal dots). The probability of the price extending further beyond this range is lowered. November 15 and 16 formed tweezer bottoms with greater volume. This is an anomaly that I am carefully watching. Also of note, is that November 15 and 16 is an a-b-c completion pattern. Also, we can see that the volume fell from the beginning of October until today, which suggests that the bearish fall in USDCHF is coming to an end.
A Look at the USDOLLAR:
WEEKLY:
First pullback of a new trend up is in cloud support. Horizontal support of a two-week fractal tight range is being tested this week; and, it seems to be bouncing off of that level.
DAILY:
The daily chart's price is in the cloud, has almost reached its average monthly range and a-b-c completion. The price is testing a horizontal area of support.
Conclusion:
USDCHF presents a buying opportunity for a forex swing trader on a daily/weekly basis. The USD's strength could support this pair.
The Trade:
I am buying USDCHF @ market 0.8888. My stop loss is a conservative one below the weekly low of 0.8560 (This is 325 pip way). If support is broken, I will watch to see if I should add around 0.8775.). I am risking about 0.25% to 0.50% of total balance from entry to the stop loss on this pair.
Psychological State:
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands! I go in with an open mind, a flexible heart and a probabilistic approach to the markets.
On a weekly chart attached, (
If we look furthermore, we can see that from August to September 2023, a "window" of support was created, and this is where price is currently sitting. This area is also in confluence with horizontal support formed from April - May 2023. Also, of note, is the current, weekly, double wave structure that began from October to this week of November 16, 2023. It could be the ending of a muted wave around 0.8882 to 0.8820. This lines of in confluence with a 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci confluence. However, if this area of support is broken, then the next level of weekly support with volume is around 0.8775, which is in confluence with a 61.8% to 76% fib range.
If we scroll down to a daily chart (
A Look at the USDOLLAR:
WEEKLY:
DAILY:
Conclusion:
USDCHF presents a buying opportunity for a forex swing trader on a daily/weekly basis. The USD's strength could support this pair.
The Trade:
I am buying USDCHF @ market 0.8888. My stop loss is a conservative one below the weekly low of 0.8560 (This is 325 pip way). If support is broken, I will watch to see if I should add around 0.8775.). I am risking about 0.25% to 0.50% of total balance from entry to the stop loss on this pair.
Psychological State:
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands! I go in with an open mind, a flexible heart and a probabilistic approach to the markets.
Capturing the swings of the stock market & currency market. It's a dirty job and equity/currency traders must do it.