USDHUF long, break above 61.8 fib level, EM market weakness play
HUF is an emerging currency, with no positive carry value -> risk-off sentiment = sell HUF
The economy is export driven, weaker HUF does not hurt the government in the short run
Monetary policy divergence got stronger
Cons:
- NBH can decide to verbally intervene in the HUF market especially because of EURHUF rate
The economy is export driven, weaker HUF does not hurt the government in the short run
Monetary policy divergence got stronger
Cons:
- NBH can decide to verbally intervene in the HUF market especially because of EURHUF rate
Trade active:
Im in the position, expect to see a pullback around 285-287 level based on market sentiment shifts. Expect MNB will stay put, verbal intervention only above the 300 handle....