For the fifth consecutive week the pair saw constant buying interest and posted a green candle. However, the size of the move is narrowing viz. between 82.56 & 83.02. From Oct 2022 we have seen this as the third attempt to cross 83 mark. The question is whether it will breach this time. While we may expect the supply to improve closer to 83 mark, we cannot rule out the chances of one spike to 83.50-83.70 and then cool-off. Alternatively, if the 83 holds for a couple of weeks more we may see the reversal towards 81.80. Till we see a daily close below 81.80, we can assume that the pair would continue the consolidation phase between 81.80 and 83.30. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.60 and 83.20. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.
A few more observations:
A few more observations:
- The currency is attempting the top of long term trend line
Dollar Index-DXY is likely to break the familiar range of 101-105. However, there may not be major impact seen on the pre-existing range
The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. It is a million-dollar question whether this zone will be breached. If breached, we may see another out of spike towards 85.70
Candle formation does not indicate immediate risk. Yet the impact on businesses would be immense if it does happen
The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue