Decided to short UJ going into the FOMC meeting today for the lulz expecting/hoping for the worse and got a lucky break. However, as I take a deeper look into this pair, I believe it is at a vulnerable position, which could provide a nice trade.
Firstly, since the Russia/Ukraine fiasco, the USD had gained quite a bit of strength against the JPY an rallied for ~14 over the past few weeks, which is the best return against the JPY in the currency market if Im not mistaken, while other pairs have since had some relief and given gains back to the market.
What the above tells me is that either:
1. The JPY is like gaining strength again.
2. The pegged pairs are losing strength (profit is being taken).
3. Its simply time for a pullback, price cant continue in one direction (without continuous catalysts).
Additional factors I'm looking at include:
4.USDJPY is at the highest price point that its ever been, recently breaking an ATH level.
5. The USD index $DXY is at a strong multi-year resistance zone after having multiple impulsive moves with little to no pullbacks - in a seemingly horrible economic climate.
6. Trend losing strength.
Luckily, I already have a few "safe" entries in, however, if price can break this ascending channel and close below in any way, I will be looking to add shorts targeting the previous ATH zone aiming for a break & retest.
Due to the candle we've witnessed because of the FMOC announcement, I believe this could be an early indicator to a trend switch. Regardless, patience should be executed. Always assume my risk profile is higher than yours. NFA.
prev. analysis linked.
Firstly, since the Russia/Ukraine fiasco, the USD had gained quite a bit of strength against the JPY an rallied for ~14 over the past few weeks, which is the best return against the JPY in the currency market if Im not mistaken, while other pairs have since had some relief and given gains back to the market.
What the above tells me is that either:
1. The JPY is like gaining strength again.
2. The pegged pairs are losing strength (profit is being taken).
3. Its simply time for a pullback, price cant continue in one direction (without continuous catalysts).
Additional factors I'm looking at include:
4.USDJPY is at the highest price point that its ever been, recently breaking an ATH level.
5. The USD index $DXY is at a strong multi-year resistance zone after having multiple impulsive moves with little to no pullbacks - in a seemingly horrible economic climate.
6. Trend losing strength.
Luckily, I already have a few "safe" entries in, however, if price can break this ascending channel and close below in any way, I will be looking to add shorts targeting the previous ATH zone aiming for a break & retest.
Due to the candle we've witnessed because of the FMOC announcement, I believe this could be an early indicator to a trend switch. Regardless, patience should be executed. Always assume my risk profile is higher than yours. NFA.
prev. analysis linked.
Comment:
Support at the trendline, my short is @ BE, will monitor the closes and decide if I want to add.
Comment:
Here we go.
These analyses are my personal view on the market.
Always assume my investment risk tolerance is higher than yours
I’m here to make money, not hold your hand. Never blindly trust any analysis you see online because it fits your bias (including mine).
Always assume my investment risk tolerance is higher than yours
I’m here to make money, not hold your hand. Never blindly trust any analysis you see online because it fits your bias (including mine).
