USD / Yen - Evolving Head and shoulders - SHORT
We have a far from perfect Head and Shoulders pattern (when is it ever perfect) developing on this pair and if it doesn't break below the open price at 109.8 (50% fib ) then we're going higher, but we're divergent on 4H and at a point of major resistance, so there is more than a 50% probability we could track down the proposed right shoulder.
If and it's always a big if, we then break the neckline (200ema), the proposed target will be established, the distance from the head to the right shoulder, transposed below the neckline @109 another major support and fib level.
I had exactly this scenario on GBP / NZD and it was my most profitable pair this year, but this is the US$ / Yen and we're selling the $, so it's something to monitor carefully.
If and it's always a big if, we then break the neckline (200ema), the proposed target will be established, the distance from the head to the right shoulder, transposed below the neckline @109 another major support and fib level.
I had exactly this scenario on GBP / NZD and it was my most profitable pair this year, but this is the US$ / Yen and we're selling the $, so it's something to monitor carefully.
Comment:
The H&S is now an invalid pattern..... no trade entered.
Comment:
There is actually a H&S pattern evolving on the daily as well, lets see if this breaks the right shoulder high.
Comment:
Testing the resistance level above the right shoulder, break that and it's invalid and no trade, the pair will then move up to 111.4
Comment:
If you're making lots of trades per day and risking more than a few % of your trading account on each trade, and trading lots of the same pairs all the time, your not trading, your gambling and badly. That maximum I ever trade is 5% of my entire trading account and that's to the top of my stop loss and that's only if the set-up is a 5 star, I may do that once a week if I'm lucky, it's normally closer to 1-3%
Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
