USDJPY: 2 Ways to trade this Bullish Flag

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
Flag patterns are one of the many simple patterns that I used to trade before I was a consistently profitable trader. Like many of the strategies that I used back then, I assumed that flags didn't work because i couldn't make profit off of them. After realizing that it was ME and not MY STRATEGY that had the problem, I find myself implementing a lot of what I used back in the day with a brand new perspective since I'm not a lot more knowledgeable about structure and price action.

This chart features a bullish flag pattern on the USDJPY             240 chart. It can also be seen pretty clear on the 1 hour. They key to this particular pattern is the fact that it has formed by putting in an HHHL which signal of bullish continuation. So price action showing me bullish continuation + Bullish Flag pattern = Look for a chance to get long.

There are a few ways to handle this trade and I've picke dout 2 to share with you. 1) Wait for a retest of the simple pattern lows and look to play the breakout. Or 2) wait for the breakout and retest. We've got resistance ahead aligned with fibonacci confluence to use as out target zone, with stops being below out flag pattern support level .

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nice share guru, already took profit on downward move in 15M now waiting for retest
notice that the price went other way
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Do you have a question about the set up, or did you just want to share a negative comment?
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WSM xtrade2015
first nobody told you to trade it if you didn't like just go find your own idea and second if you win 100% of the time please let me know so i sell my house and send you the money to manage for me and third i follow Akil for too many years and let me tell you that i love to lose with him because he lose as any professional could lose still his loses ONE GOOD TRADE
First of all, let me tell you that i joined in today with you in liveroom and i loved it!!

Please let me know if i understand it correctly:

First you have an impulse leg that is almost straight up, in this case is bullish, followed by consolidation area.
Then using Fibbonaci retracement you wait untli it retraces so it hit previous resistence point to became new structure, and only then you go long setting first target in previous top resistance 1.27 fibbonacci extensio tool?!?!

Be gentle, i have only starting learning a 1 week ago, and have no trading experience whatsoever!!
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Glad you enjoyed the live room, it's a lot of action but very fun. For this particular set up yes, the flag pattern was represented by the impulse leg up, followed by the consolidation. The fact that it completed above structure led to be anticipating a bullish breakout. If that were the case (putting structure aside) the first stopping point we can look for would have been the 1.272 fib extension.
I don't worry I'm only aggressive with my 12 Week transformation members
J_Graystone PRO Akil_Stokes
Yeah, ME! Lol
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO J_Graystone
Exactly!!! if it helps, Jason was the same way with me and I turned out okay
J_Graystone PRO Akil_Stokes
Akil, I really enjoy it. I listen to everything you say and take on board your thoughts.
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HKM666 J_Graystone
I just had a glance and loved it!
Going back tomorrow for sure, this time with a ,itlle more sleep! ehehe
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Question: I notice it went the other way... what does that mean?
I understand that this is just a "strategy" and just like other tools like Gartley patterns, if you see a bearish bat wing pattern it will not always go bear.
Is this one of those times it didn't go the way you were anticipating?

I was also anticipating it break the 122.19 resistance line.
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Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
That being said... my brain said bull, but I saw this too:
USD/JPY Bearish Gartley
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HKM666 Shun-Jiru
ShunTaneka - This is what i beleive it must be,but i not certain ok?

In the Flag pattern you have to wait until the market breaks outside of the consolidantion area in order to test the previous retracement resistence (If the pole of the flag is bullish).
After it hit that point, then you should wait for the rally, that´s why you saw it go down first then up! First it tested the resistence then went up to the previous higher high!

In the Gartley pattern , i believe that you have to wait for the move X to A to B to C
You have the impulse leg from X to A. You use the Fibonnaci extensio tool in order to see if the move B to C in on the 1.272.
If so, then you trace the Fibbonacci Retracement from A to B and place your call or short, sell in the 1.78 (D) !
Then it´s just wait and watch the market roll over to previous support level (C)

Place your stop above X , collect your profit a little bit above C in order to see you get fill!!

That´s what i think it means, but i could be wrong!!
Only started learnig this one week ago!!
+1 Reply
HKM666 HKM666
Sorry my mistake!!
In the Flag pattern what you should expect is for the break of consolidation area, then it goes up to test support (Previous support becames resistence), then it rolles over to previous support level!! In this case is the middle of the pole of the flag!!
It rolles over because the flag was bullish!

Sorry told i´m new at this!!
Maybe i got it right this time #Akil_Stokes
Good thought, however the "C" leg dips below the "A" leg which would invalidate the pattern. Aside from that the overall shape is dead on!
Shun-Jiru Akil_Stokes
Thanks Akil. Would like to hear more of your trade ideas and strategies.
This was my general idea. 3 different apexes converging, 3 different opportunities for it to go bullish. overall trend line started way back in January. resistance level at 1.23. so i figure it would hit around 1.23 area. my job is to predict what's going to happen 3~4 months from now, a little bit different from day trading.

3 Apex
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Thanks, I'm glad you've been enjoying my material.
Correct, the market just didn't move in the way i predicted. Someone mentioned this above but no strategies are 100% accurate. Although it's important to evaluate each trade after it completes (win or lose) sometimes you can do everything right and still be wrong. But as long as we followed the correct process, it gets written down as a good trade.
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HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Man are you for real!! I got the Flag and Gartley Pattern right????

No trade plan is 100% guarantee but staying focus and implementing a back-test trade plan leads to good results in the end!
That´s what i´m starting to realize!!
Not bad for 1 week!!
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You're a little off on the gartley but advanced patterns take some time. i would focus on learning one thing right now and mastering it. I always say learn the basics of price action before the advanced stuff.
I just mentioned this in the YouTube video I posted seconds ago ( https://youtu.be/_Y1WEMbRzV0 ) but most professional traders stay within that 50-60% correct range. Yes there are people on the internet that claim to be 90% and what not...many are liars and the others...well...they may be 90% but I'd love to see their risk to reward ratio. Anyway, we have to become comfortable with losing. It's going to happen a lot and although it is sometimes our fault by way or error, sometimes there's nothing we can do about it. The key is to not lose confidence and trust your plan 100% while trading.
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
If can´t sustain, then probably you will trade with a hot head, and then it will only be worst!!
Take loses as you take wins! Learn and adapt!
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Exactly...each loss brings you that much closer to your next win. it's amazing once you know exactly what type of return% your strategy should bring. After nailing those 5 cyphers in a row, I'm fully expecting a small losing streak to come. It simply is what it is.
HKM666 HKM666
You´re right of course!!
Crawl walk then run!!
Just by curiosity :
What was my mistake in the Gartley pattern!?
HKM666 HKM666
I know what you mean!!
Can´t win them all, but it won´t rain forever also!!
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the way i trade them the sell is at the 1.272 ex from A to b
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Oh i see!
Could i assume that then if the B to c comes above A and in the Fibs, you would sell at D ?
Correct, if C didn;t pass A it would have been a valid sell signal
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
I will not get over my head, but it tastes really good to grasp a little of advanced pattern in such short period of time! At least i think that is a short period of time, don´t knoe how much time it takes to understand this!!!
Back to basics,Learning to crawl!! See you again tomorrow Akil the Great!
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Learning is easy, actually seeing it in the markets is difficult, actually staying sane and executing a trade consistently is where most don't make it.
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HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Only hope that i will be able to do it!
I know i have the will, let´s see if i have the power!!
Still a good trade though.
I have similar idea.
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Shun-Jiru PriceActionTrading
I think we all did.
we coming well into prior structure resistance for an awesome trade risk to reward wise for a shorting opportunity.
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