FX_IDC:USDJPY U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Yen has been consolidating for over 9 months. Perhaps the most boring currency in 2018. See the monthly YEN weighted average below.
This made trading YEN crosses difficult throughout the year. But see how on the weekly TF, for the first time it bounced into the 14 and 21 last week and nicely pulled back.
This pullback caused by Powell comment that rates are just below the neutral. Cheaper USD led to stronger US Stocks and US stronger stocks means YEN sell off. With the 90 days ceasefire in trade war we should see a gap higher in US Stocks which is going to put more pressure on YEN and we may see eventually YEN breaks the 9 months support. On Daily TF YEN weighted average we have another 0.40% for YEN crosses to fall before heading into the last major support.
USDJPY also had 0.80% of upside move before heading into the neckline (major resistance) around 114.6
If the Neckline of the Inverted breaks then we shall see 116.717 and 120 as major resistance.
The chart below show the correlation between the Inverted Nikkei (Red line) and weighted average YEN. See how they are positively correlated but for the last 2 years YEN is not falling with the same pace as Nikkei.
On the weekly TF see how Inverted Nikkei failed on the second attempt going higher after visiting the mid band. If it drops from here we shall see YEN falling too.
Below is YEN Yields and a negative correlation is expected. See how it is facing a major support here and a bounce is expected, hence a decline in YEN.
But to be honest USDJPY is not the most attractive YEN cross to trade. AUDJPY Long is great after the G20 summit. As Aussie may rise in the coming week and YEN may fall then this pair can offer a great opportunity to go Long.
See AUDJPY Monthly. It bounced in NOV off the mid band of the modified and although AUD crosses have risen over 5% in NOV but this pair underperformed by only moving 3.7%.
Weekly is even more attractive. See how it nicely bounced off the EMAs last week.
Best practical target in medium term is 86.11
Next interesting Long set up is NZDJPY . See how on the first week of AUG it made a false breakout of the and stayed below the rising for 13 weeks. Mad 4 attempts to go lower but it could not. Finally in the first week of NOV it got back inside the formation and just last week it reached to the upper band of the formation.
Question is that can we buy it right after the open and if so what SL or TP should be the best. Maybe that is not the best plan to buy it right at the open as it need 200-300 pips SL even though the TP is more attractive. I would wait until on D1 TF it hits 78.65 and then we can buy it back once it shows any sign of failure.
CADJPY looks a good long set up too but I am not convinced if CAD is the best candidate to be on. When we have AUDJPY and NZDJPY and USDJPY , I would prefer not to trade CADJPY
CHFJPY is also a good long but I cannot find a good RR there. Target 114.63
The worst YEN crosses to be long I think is EURJPY considering the false breakout that it had on WED.
and GBPJPY considering that there is no good news coming out from the Brexit Deal.
But do not forget that GBPJPY can be the best Long trade if after 11 DEC a referendum happens. To read more about Sterling click below.
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Dr. Ehsan Khansalar