LupaCapital

USD JPY - Departure awaits, series 8

Short
FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
G'Day Traders and Analysts,

This will require further updates on a daily chart.. as Price has not yet confirmed a selling Imbalance.
Buying imbalances have been reached!
Congrats to those who purchased along the way, great overall results from 102.XX - 123.XX!!

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.

Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move, price may move up to 125.XX the Scenario is not invalid, simply will await confirms again. This is built into the logical approach of an imbalance trader.

Master Key for zones
  • Red = Three Month
  • Blue = Monthly
  • Purple = weekly
  • Orange = Daily

Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.


Monthly chart
What is the monthly chart showing?
Price has now arrived at the Monthly imbalance, where it is now creating a base candle. The previous fresh level was created back in June, July 2015.
August saw a bi-monthly and monthly low tested upon the fresh level created. Confirming a four day continuous selling from the distal point and opportunities to sell from the proximal line .

As the current monthly chart shows a Fresh level test where March 2022 had wicked after netting out the 2015 August high. Price had immediately pivoted from the low and whip sawed back the following day.
Price then began to sell off back to a reverting back to the steep trendline formation which the daily chart shows at present .

Using the monthly timeframe still, USD JPY has previous created back in 2007 an original fresh level of the 123.XX zone. Now 15 years on, has retested the new imbalance as mentioned above in 2015. Analyzing the overall cycle, and looking at the example below to show how the original departure worked . Price successfully DBD from the departure supply imbalance.

Recapping the fresh level from 123.XX as mentioned, indicated a clear supply imbalance;
Price departed here with a perfect Departure candle scenario;

Where the highlighted candle (purple) shows a indecision candle upon a monthly setup.
The preceding month then has an engulfing candle which is double the height. From here the sell would be opportune position for three consecutive zones for profit taking.
Note using a DCA positional method. Adding positional sells are added at a rejection of any pivot point.

Daily Old Technical Analysis (positional buy)
Review more technical work in the links below.

Weekly;
Awaiting the departure level for confirmation - with reference to the previous distal and proximal lines within the OL Supply imbalance.
There is not enough evidence as yet to provide a clear selling imbalance.
What is clear though, is that from the weekly wick back into the Fresh level will show two things;
1. Retest of the high to confirm a double top or lower high formation
2. A daily confirm candle to show a clear indecision candle - but again, awaiting 123.X to become an area of clear proximal sells. Refer to the daily chart below. 1.1.

Weekly chart:


Figure 1.1.
This shows the Imbalance candle in relating to a strong move confirmation, >95% confidence of this being retested as per previous Original level.

Daily chart for a potential sell position

Await updates... in comments of new charts.

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Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.

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Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII


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