USD/JPY is testing support this morning after a pullback developed in the early portion of this week. To end Q2, I had highlighted a key spot of resistance in USD/JPY at the 133.09 level, and after a bit of struggle that level held as resistance with prices pushing down for a test of support that sits just above the 130 handle.
While the carry trade drove the pair higher for the first nine months of last year, that theme was flipped upside down in Q4 as US rates started to fall. After the first quarter of 2023, that theme very much remains center-stage for global markets.
That move in Treasury rates over the past six months wasn’t prodded by the Fed, however, as the Central Bank continues to talk up the prospect of more rate hikes. But as the horizon grew more opaque last year, capital flows into Treasuries, particularly longer-dated Treasuries, helped to invert the yield curve with longer-term Treasuries yielding less than that of shorter-dated issues.
USDJPY long term trend is still down. Currently on the h1 chart the price is consolidating sideways in the 130.70-131.30 zone. Recommend waiting to sell down around 131.30, SL: 131.60, TP: 129.90
While the carry trade drove the pair higher for the first nine months of last year, that theme was flipped upside down in Q4 as US rates started to fall. After the first quarter of 2023, that theme very much remains center-stage for global markets.
That move in Treasury rates over the past six months wasn’t prodded by the Fed, however, as the Central Bank continues to talk up the prospect of more rate hikes. But as the horizon grew more opaque last year, capital flows into Treasuries, particularly longer-dated Treasuries, helped to invert the yield curve with longer-term Treasuries yielding less than that of shorter-dated issues.
USDJPY long term trend is still down. Currently on the h1 chart the price is consolidating sideways in the 130.70-131.30 zone. Recommend waiting to sell down around 131.30, SL: 131.60, TP: 129.90
