Tipping Point: Are We Poised for a Breakthrough or Breakdown?

This pair is at a crucial point. What happens here will set its course for the next few months or even longer.

Last week, it went above 150, but then there was a big drop. It seems the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stepped in, just like they did last year. When they did that last year, the price dropped over 2,000 pips in the following months. Will the same thing happen again?

The 152 mark is a significant resistance level. If the we manages to break and get a weekly or monthly close above this level, it could pave the way for a rally towards the Monthly SUPPLY/SELL zone at 157.

Given the circumstances, such as ten consecutive weeks of the market reaching new highs and recent BOJ interventions, I don't see this happening for now anyhows. I believe that buying this pair at current levels is risky. Though I do anticipate another attempt to breach the 150 mark, perhaps even surpassing last week's high, before an imminent sell-off.

I'll be using the TRFX king indicator to spot sell signals on the 4-hour to daily charts, especially as the market nears or exceeds 150. My stop-loss will be set slightly above 152.

If this rally does not occur I will wait for the break lower and then enter on the first sell signal on the first pull back.

First target that should be easily hit is 145 ,this should act as some sort of support and could be an area for buyers to regroup and try to push for a move to break 152 (I don't see this happening though this is trading anything can happen)

If the pair dives below 145, it could signify an even deeper correction, potentially below 140. Further sell-offs, potentially triggered by the BOJ altering their negative rate policy, could lead to rapid unwinding of carry trade positions.

To sum it up, I believe entering buying positions at current levels is very risky and if you are looking to buy I would wait for pull backs towards 145. In contrast, a sell position seems to offer a more attractive risk-reward proposition and has the potential to result in a substantial trade.

Comment:

Position moving as expected we got the move up to test last year's high followed by the SELL 145 is looking likely next for sellers

Comment:

First easy target hit at 145 will be interesting to see what happens here as this could plummet hard