USDMXN Bounce-Play

FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
Two possible scenarios:

1. USDMXN will create the next shooting star soon after reaching 20-- this new high and possible psychological resistance, and expecting it to drop back near 19.5 (or lower, possibly at 19 instead which is the 61.8 fib) by next month, or
2. USDMXN will continue rising near 2018 high esp if DXY tries to reach 100 before bouncing down as expected

Either way, this pair is pretty much overbought and due for a strong pullback, especially if we look at its weekly price action, recent bullish candles aren't as big as those back between April-June 2018 and October-November 2018.


Confidence: B (possible for this pair to reach new highs esp if market gets more risk-off overall while at the same time continue pushing DXY to climb to 100 faster-- after already pricing in the 2nd rate cut by Fed this coming September)
Trade closed manually: Locking in current gains for now before the Fed rate cut next week.