USDNOK: Long term decline in play

FX:USDNOK   U.S. Dollar/Norwegian Krone
390 4 36
The chart is clear for USDNOK             , it's apparently forming a topping pattern (which you won't see me use often, sine they are quite rare, and often misdiagnosed...).
The time at mode analysis of multiple timeframes, points to a moderately high probability of seeing a decline back to 7.6543 by June this year.
The entry on chart, is one of many possible entries, albeit a safe one with a pretty much 1 ATR% stop, shielded below the current downtrend mode, as well as the key fomc resistance level on chart. I have entered higher, but this is a good opportunity to join this trend.

I'm trading it as a position trade, adding on subsequent trades, and any kind of technical pretext I can find, since I know it can most certainly arrive to the target on chart, and I'd reccomend doing the same. It's not frequent to find such strong trend reversals.
Good luck if taking this trade and remember overnight swap is positive for it, as a nice extra bonus and incentive to add to the winners every chance you get.


Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
Comment: Retracement is a good area to average entry if you risked half.
Trade closed: stop reached: We'll reenter when safe.
Comment: Relative strength wise, CAD is acting much better, we'd rather take that one instead, as an oil proxy trade.
Comment: Seems to be forming the aforementioned right shoulder now.
I'm flat this pair, focusing on usdcad instead. (and holding nzdcad)
Defenetly on the right road if u take a look at weekly chart there is a verry bearish signal .Eres un autentico artista.
Un saludo y buen fin de semana
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie Mariusrim87
With some luck we can reenter next week.
I have covered the short for now.
Hi, great analysis.
You dont take the current channel into consideration on this pair regarding your entry?
2015-06-18 Is the starting point for the lower channel trendline.

I agree with your analysis that the pair is in a topping pattern.
Hi, thanks.
As for the chart, no, I don't use trendlines or channels, so not really.
It might take a while to set up, since we had 'bad' oil news pushing these pairs up, but the price action still suggests downtrend continuation is likely.
I'm holding short positions in this pair and others, and adding on new signals that might emerge lower.
For now, it hasn't proved me wrong, but the last entry here is in drawdown.
Let's see if it pans out as expected.
+1 Reply
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