USD/PLN 1H Chart: Pair lingers near channel line
The US Dollar began accelerating against the Polish Zloty mid-April. Following a test of the 3.35 level, the rate breached the prevailing long-term channel and shot up to the 3.75 area. This movement has been bounded in a new senior channel. Its upper boundary is located at the aforementioned 3.75 mark.
By mid-Monday, the pair was testing its other boundary circa 3.62. Short-term technical signals point to further advance. The nearest level of strong resistance is 3.67 where the 38.20% Fibo and the 100– and 55-period (4H) SMAs are located. A successful breakout of this area should push the pair up to 3.80 or even 3.90.
In case this mark remains intact, it means that bears would be ready to take the dominant hand within the following weeks. As a result, the current senior channel should be breached to the downside just to allow the Greenback to approach 3.55/00.
By mid-Monday, the pair was testing its other boundary circa 3.62. Short-term technical signals point to further advance. The nearest level of strong resistance is 3.67 where the 38.20% Fibo and the 100– and 55-period (4H) SMAs are located. A successful breakout of this area should push the pair up to 3.80 or even 3.90.
In case this mark remains intact, it means that bears would be ready to take the dominant hand within the following weeks. As a result, the current senior channel should be breached to the downside just to allow the Greenback to approach 3.55/00.
USD/PLN has been trading in a medium-term ascending channel since early May. The rate remained near its bottom boundary for two weeks before surging considerably towards the upper channel line and testing the 3.82 level mid-today. This marks a 4.45% advance during the previous five trading sessions.
This movement up has been bounded in a junior channel up. The rate is located close to the upper boundary of both the senior and junior channels and the monthly R2 at 3.86.
Technical indicators which flash clearly overbought signals on the 4H chart suggest that a change in sentiment is likely to occur soon. Even if some move north still occurs today, the Greenback is likely to reverse south either near the aforementioned resistance at 3.86 or at the psychological 3.90 level.
Downside target for the following two weeks is the 3.70 area where the monthly PP, the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs are located.