peterbokma

USDTRY-SELL strategy long-term Monthly chart

Short
FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
This is just informative, as it is clear the pair is heavily manipulated. However, it is interesting to see the FX forwards, having widened again since 8 days ago, and 42.5% rate setting central bank, does reflect the heavy cost of carry being short the pair. Obviously, this is to combat the weakening of the currency. I remember the French Franc overnight rate of 1,000% t0 combat weakness of the currency. Now where does this bring us. Technically we have a "falls bull flag" pattern, and we got extremely expensive cost of carry on the pair. One year outright is above 40.50, so its roughly 10 big figures per year cost of carry. so its obvious, for those in need to cover exports in Turkey, it is heaven. For speculators, if one can trade it (not advisable), correction may take some time. Technically we should see back somewhere 18.00, and carrying is beneficial. anyway, long time did not update as it is controlled and technical aspects do not work until such a time drastic measures are taken, i.e. interest rates of 1,000% may do the trick.

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