FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar/Turkish New Lira
112 2 4
From time to time, I like to post my mistakes. Usually I do it with private charts, but if there is something for everybody to learn, I make them public. This is a wonderful trade I took on USDTRY             , or better said, didn't take.

On the weekly chart, the green arrow shows where I bought, the red where I sold. Let me explain the trade.

After a strong rise following the coup attempt, USDTRY             made a false breakout above 3.07, and formed a triple top with a bearish divergence. If I want to buy after a triple top, hoping for a continuation of the uptrend, I do one of two things : either buy when price reaches weekly value, or buy after a rejection of the 78.6% retracement. In this case, I went for the first option.

Looking at the daily chart , I bought when I saw a bullish candle, while price was still at value on the weekly chart. I had, as always a soft stop. The fundamentals were strongly pointing to more downside for the Turkish Lira.

After a couple weeks of sideways action, I decided to sell my position on a candle accelerating below daily value. This was a stupid emotional decision because :

Price was still at value on the weekly chart(the reason I bought this pair in the first place).
Although the impulse was red on both the daily and weekly charts, the week was far from over (and indeed the impulse closed blue that week, after 4 weeks of red impulse).
Price didn't even reach the swing low at 2.915.
I had a soft stop on this, which by definition implies that I should be able to sustain a bigger fall below the swing low of my trade.
As I said above, fundamentals were in line for further depreciation of the Lira.
It was pretty logical to be long this pair, because after a surge due to the coup, prices slowly corrected in an abc type correction (although I never trade abc corrections, I like to watch out for them because indeed many corrections turn out the exact way this pattern suggests).

A few days later after closing my position, I remember thinking that I've made a mistake. Did I have the courage to get back in? No. What happened? More than 15% to the upside.

Thomas-ay
10 days ago
Hi. What do you expect now? For investor who has still TL? Will dollar continue to climb or it ll decrease for a while? What is logical?
Reply
vlad.adrian PRO Thomas-ay
2 days ago
@Thomas-ay, Sorry for replying so late. I think the Turkish Lira should stabilize because the current move is extremely overbought.
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