The pair flew to the 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.37 last week Friday following some fresh virus FUD.
A daily close above the critical resistance rate of 16.37 will confirm a channel break out of the longer-term orange channel and send the pair higher towards the 71.8% Fibo rate of 17.07. The pair is however trading in heavily overbought ranges on the RSI and the virus FUD will likely ease which may allow the rand to pull the pair to calmer waters around the 10-day MA of 15.82, over the next two weeks. I'm however not getting my hopes up for a test of the critical support rate of 15.66.
Lots of event risk this week, Powell babble as well as from Yellen plus NFP's. (The latest variant FUD may cause Powell to sing a less hawkish tone this week, let's see)
From SA, unemployment figures and the latest trade balance.
Over the slightly longer-term its seems likely that the current third wave will break the orange channel (fundamentally almost every thing seems the be in favour of further rand weakness). A failed break above 16.37 could however see the start of an ABC corrective wave in January next year.
A daily close above the critical resistance rate of 16.37 will confirm a channel break out of the longer-term orange channel and send the pair higher towards the 71.8% Fibo rate of 17.07. The pair is however trading in heavily overbought ranges on the RSI and the virus FUD will likely ease which may allow the rand to pull the pair to calmer waters around the 10-day MA of 15.82, over the next two weeks. I'm however not getting my hopes up for a test of the critical support rate of 15.66.
Lots of event risk this week, Powell babble as well as from Yellen plus NFP's. (The latest variant FUD may cause Powell to sing a less hawkish tone this week, let's see)
From SA, unemployment figures and the latest trade balance.
Over the slightly longer-term its seems likely that the current third wave will break the orange channel (fundamentally almost every thing seems the be in favour of further rand weakness). A failed break above 16.37 could however see the start of an ABC corrective wave in January next year.
Comment:
We hit the zone around the 10-day MA. A daily close below the 10-day MA (15.82) could allow the pair to test the critical support rate of 15.67
Comment:
The rand managed to pull the pair to a daily close outside of the upward channel which allowed the pair to fall, satisfyingly, onto the major support of 15.67. A daily close below 15.67 could allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the 50-day MA rate, currently sitting around 15.30.
