This is a lower conviction play as the one can argue that the pennant did not enter a consolidation and is part of the continued upward trend however, I would argue that since pennants are continuation patterns with representing a "brief" consolidation, magnitude of the entry (into the pattern) should not matter.
But entering from the bottom, we saw some profit taking on the first spike up (that formed the height of the pennant and we will probably see some reloading through out the pattern. In crude oil futures, we saw a lot of profit taking by speculators at the top of this range (as by COT).
I think structurally (fundamentally) crude oil needs another 25% leg up anyway to be fairly priced (assuming conflict remains but doesn't escalate, and producers don't go back online). 1) The short term news of 1 million released daily from the SPR is nothing (versus the 20 million we consume daily). 2) We are also entering spring/summer/fall where oil is more heavily consumed; on top of an end of COVID lock downs (doesn't seem like we will be doing that anymore even in blue states). 3) With high inflation (houses and physical goods) I can see consumer preferences change from stuff to experiences, ie traveling. Even oil is relatively high to its spot price, inflation adjusted its significantly lower than its last peak - there is probably another spike left to go up.
I think the risk-reward is worth it to buy at the bottom of this channel before we continue heading higher to at least PT of ~96. A position is merited here to be added on the upward breakout if supported by a strong volume bar. I think the downside argument could be made that instead of a pennant this is a longer-term (beginning of) distribution pattern, evident by a selling climax. However, if that's the case USO will have some support by the current positive carry of crude oil giving some positive return (or cushion to ~3-4% monthly) while consolidating in the range. If discovered there is a longer term distribution pattern on the way - I can probably exit at flat.
But entering from the bottom, we saw some profit taking on the first spike up (that formed the height of the pennant and we will probably see some reloading through out the pattern. In crude oil futures, we saw a lot of profit taking by speculators at the top of this range (as by COT).
I think structurally (fundamentally) crude oil needs another 25% leg up anyway to be fairly priced (assuming conflict remains but doesn't escalate, and producers don't go back online). 1) The short term news of 1 million released daily from the SPR is nothing (versus the 20 million we consume daily). 2) We are also entering spring/summer/fall where oil is more heavily consumed; on top of an end of COVID lock downs (doesn't seem like we will be doing that anymore even in blue states). 3) With high inflation (houses and physical goods) I can see consumer preferences change from stuff to experiences, ie traveling. Even oil is relatively high to its spot price, inflation adjusted its significantly lower than its last peak - there is probably another spike left to go up.
I think the risk-reward is worth it to buy at the bottom of this channel before we continue heading higher to at least PT of ~96. A position is merited here to be added on the upward breakout if supported by a strong volume bar. I think the downside argument could be made that instead of a pennant this is a longer-term (beginning of) distribution pattern, evident by a selling climax. However, if that's the case USO will have some support by the current positive carry of crude oil giving some positive return (or cushion to ~3-4% monthly) while consolidating in the range. If discovered there is a longer term distribution pattern on the way - I can probably exit at flat.
Trade active:
The pennant did not complete but rather looks to have expanded the range. With rising tensions over energy this trade should remain in tact but requires an updated drawing with updated price targets.
