Timing the next buy opportunity on oil markets

I've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and $53/54 for Brent). To complement all those excellent charts shared by others on this site, I'd simply like to point out the long-term support on the Oil / Gold ratio. It seems like WTI will test it's trend-line when this ratio hits its 1993/1998/2009 lows.


Turns out that the WTI/Gold support worked really well!
FrancisHunt AdrianRaymondFX
Yes I have been on a Long WTI vs Short XAU for a bit.

How can we get an update on this price relative chart?

Good mini thread!
Good chart, nice share not enough valuation relatives done .. keep it up
I have been looking at the same trendline. However, my reservations include the fact that this same trendline when looked at on the semi-log chart has already been broken at around $63. From a fibo standpoint, I'd say final support before a drop to your arithmetic trendline is 52.75, which is 2.618 times the initial drop in this leg lower (just before the plunge).
AdrianRaymondFX AkshayChinchalkar
That's very true about the trendline being broken on a semi log chart. Nevertheless, the Oil/Gold ratio support remains the same.
AkshayChinchalkar AdrianRaymondFX
Am with you on that one Adrian. Am not sure if the EUR has as strong a correlation as it used to with Oil, but if the EUR still remains a proxy for risk on in the credit markets, a 9 year old trendline coinciding with the 200 month simple moving average on the EUR monthlies suggests oil may be close to some sort of a bottom.
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