I've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their (around $47 for WTI and $53/54 for Brent). To complement all those excellent charts shared by others on this site, I'd simply like to point out the long-term support on the Oil/Gold ratio. It seems like WTI will test it's trend-line when this ratio hits its 1993/1998/2009 lows.
I have been looking at the same trendline. However, my reservations include the fact that this same trendline when looked at on the semi-log chart has already been broken at around $63. From a fibo standpoint, I'd say final support before a drop to your arithmetic trendline is 52.75, which is 2.618 times the initial drop in this leg lower (just before the plunge).
Am with you on that one Adrian. Am not sure if the EUR has as strong a correlation as it used to with Oil, but if the EUR still remains a proxy for risk on in the credit markets, a 9 year old trendline coinciding with the 200 month simple moving average on the EUR monthlies suggests oil may be close to some sort of a bottom.