Daniel Urdaneta

Long Oil (Contrarian trade on Weekly Oversold, good Risk/Reward)

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Notes on chart. I'm posting it again to get the trade more clear with stops/targets. Will play with USO since don't have a futs account.

I'll go there in 2 tranches:

1. Immediate: Buying at WTI 44, target 50.75, stop 40.01 (def won't risk losing 40-handle on WTI - LOTS of negative momo are still around).

2. Contigent: Buying at spot if, at the end of August 10th, SPY             closes green, TLT             crosses red (failure to cross the 200-day MA), DXY             closes red. Target WTI 54.75, stop 40.01.
thx for sharing..i don`t see a reversal Chance at that Level... here is my view :-)

Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) - but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.

The useage of many WMAs or EMAs is the so called "rainbow-concept"
An important concept of this trading approach is the so called "spin" ! This refers to the trend reversal in itself or the time in which the Rainbow rotates . Due to the construction of the Rainbow as a "multi- cross" system does not generate this a single signal, such as the breakthrough to a new high / low but needs time to unfold again. With this concept you have a trend-following system, but also the Advantage that you can catch sustainable trend reversals (with a time lag - but you can minimize that lag, because of the use of short timeframes composed with Long time Frames)
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