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As of Friday close, NVDA and AMAT appear to have the volatility metrics I'm looking for in earnings-related volatility contraction play (>70 rank/>50 implied).
NVDA (70/67) announces on Thursday after market close. The iron condor pictured here pays 1.73 credit with break evens wide of the expected move.
AMAT (68/48) announces on Thursday after market close, ...
Let's see if this crude bounce can pan out.
$USO US Oil looking very oversold. Expecting to hold support this week and stay above $13.00
Looking for a medium term bounce - targeting ~$15.40 (early October gap-fill) by year-end
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
After a 10 straight drops, oil finally at support based on my indicator. As long as the support holds, long oil.
Last idea got stopped out, so let's try this again.
With oil bouncing next week potentially, XLE is likely to bounce. Plus XLE held support very well this week although oil crashed. Long to the upper channel.
Oil is about to bounce off the weekly support. 11 days of non stop selling, we just need one capitulation event and swift reversal to set a temporary bottom here.
This is a good high IVR premium selling opportunity. Due to oils sharp drop in price in a relatively short amount of time has caused implied volatlity to skyrocket. My straddle has some positive delta bias because I think a relief rally is due so if we get a pop in oil prices it gives my upside a ...
Oil is severily oversold, the news on the fundamental side is also fairly negative. Seems like a ripe opportunity for a bounce. Yet I don't believe oil will be going any higher than the expected bounce anytime soon.
This was inevitable. Question here is how far does this go? Another oil bust would be extremely problematic for global liquidity as it would rocket the dollar higher, or vice versa.
Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) likely counter trend bounce here off 200weekSMA support at $1.66 to reclaim long-term moving average support of 50monthSMA at $1.70, then rally to test 100weekSMA resistance at $1.80.
- Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) now testing long-term support of 200weekSMA at $1.66.
- $1.66 also strong ...
Nice weekly & channel.
TWTR announces earnings on Thursday before market open, and with a rank of 92 and a 30-day implied of 70, it presents ideal metrics for a earnings announcement volatility contraction play.
As of Friday close, the November 16th 25/34 short strangle is paying 1.57 (.79 profit at 50% max), with a net delta of .39 and a theta of 6.45, and break evens of 23.43/35.57 ...
With broad market volatility ramping up over the past week here (see VIX, VXN, RVX), premium sellers can afford to be picky here, since the board is alight from here to Sunday with implied volatility ranks in the 70's for ... well ... a ton of stuff.
For earnings, my eye is on AA and NFLX with nearly ideal rank/implied metrics for volatility contraction ...
I've been doing well buying puts once the corrections are developing. Usually about 3-4 weeks out to allow the correction to develop and so I dont get slammed by theta decay. Now eventually if we're in an impulse to go down, we will need to see a bigger correction to develop. Will we get a few more pushes down before that happens, or will it start right now? ...
Large bearish Descending Triangle in WTI. This means we could easily test bottom again, which ultimately could mean another gut punch for Alberta. Corb Lund and the 'Hurtin Albertans' indeed!
If you read up on the descending triangle formation, it tells us it is a bearish pattern and most often a continuation pattern, however, it also can represent a reversal ...
XOP the same set up as XLE. My indicator has broken the upward trendline before price breaks the triangle.
I expect the price to move up a little next few weeks so as my indicator to retest the broken TL. If my indicator fails to break above, then look to short it hard.
Previous Oil long idea did not end up reaching the target - let's try again. Along with my SPY trade idea, I believe oil is due for a nice rally, even if in a counter trend capacity.
Directional Bias: Long
Price Target: 72
Good Entry: Breakout Above 68.5 or another retest of low 66 area.
Risk/Reward: Risk no more than 100 ticks/ 300-600 tick potential reward