WTI 2018-11-21 Potential breakout day setup (except for Holiday)
My work is based on the study of the book "Secrets of a Pivot Boss" by Frank Ochoa where terms and concepts are documented.
The 20th's session appeared to be a 'double-distributed trending day'. One of the type of market days that can follow such a day is a 'expanded typical day' which it looks like today was (21st). My plan was for prices to trade lower in the VA but instead, they traded higher. This week, price has made some important tests of levels. Referring to the daily chart, The VAL (value area low) of the Q4CY17 was tested along with a POC (point of control) from Q1CY17 (A):
I still believe that the final target of this drop from October is the VAL from the Q2CY17 VAL (B).
From the perspective of tests that found resistance (to-date), referring to the previous sessions, The large drop that occurred on 13th (A) which created a wide VA was tested (VAL) today and held (C). This line held and saw responsive sellers come in and drive price back to the previous sessions' VA. The major line of support that held today was the IBH (initial balance high).
For today's action, the market type I believe is an 'expanded typical day' where price set a medium size IB, moved above it and then went on to test the VAL from the 13th (which is where price broke out of). Additionally, the lower part of the range of the 13th was tested first with all tests coming back to the IBH of 21st. The VA for today is an inside day so it's possible that a breakout can occur from this. However, with the 22nd a Holiday in US, market may move sideways again setting up a much larger move on Friday.
For the 22nd, Price set a narrow IB in alignment with the close but in the first candle that closed after IB was below the previous sessions POC.
Plan for day: Just watch. Had it not been a US Holiday, I would look for some type of breakout here. Though noting how price reacted after the last large drop on 13th, it's possible that we could see more than one day of inside to overlapped VA's setting up for next large drop. For today, watching the VAL for both the 21st and the 20th for support and rebounds. As the IB is narrow, I'm looking for some type of 'expanded typical day' for a market day. Though, price could continue to break the 21st and 20th sessions levels to downside and selloff too.
The 20th's session appeared to be a 'double-distributed trending day'. One of the type of market days that can follow such a day is a 'expanded typical day' which it looks like today was (21st). My plan was for prices to trade lower in the VA but instead, they traded higher. This week, price has made some important tests of levels. Referring to the daily chart, The VAL (value area low) of the Q4CY17 was tested along with a POC (point of control) from Q1CY17 (A):
I still believe that the final target of this drop from October is the VAL from the Q2CY17 VAL (B).
From the perspective of tests that found resistance (to-date), referring to the previous sessions, The large drop that occurred on 13th (A) which created a wide VA was tested (VAL) today and held (C). This line held and saw responsive sellers come in and drive price back to the previous sessions' VA. The major line of support that held today was the IBH (initial balance high).
For today's action, the market type I believe is an 'expanded typical day' where price set a medium size IB, moved above it and then went on to test the VAL from the 13th (which is where price broke out of). Additionally, the lower part of the range of the 13th was tested first with all tests coming back to the IBH of 21st. The VA for today is an inside day so it's possible that a breakout can occur from this. However, with the 22nd a Holiday in US, market may move sideways again setting up a much larger move on Friday.
For the 22nd, Price set a narrow IB in alignment with the close but in the first candle that closed after IB was below the previous sessions POC.
Plan for day: Just watch. Had it not been a US Holiday, I would look for some type of breakout here. Though noting how price reacted after the last large drop on 13th, it's possible that we could see more than one day of inside to overlapped VA's setting up for next large drop. For today, watching the VAL for both the 21st and the 20th for support and rebounds. As the IB is narrow, I'm looking for some type of 'expanded typical day' for a market day. Though, price could continue to break the 21st and 20th sessions levels to downside and selloff too.
