we see some HP on the chart and WW and RSI oversold are bullish sign toward 90$
we may see a divergence before this expected bullish move.
we should wait for confirmation e.g. above ema200 to get into trade.
fundamental:
The market is worried that demand will fall due to problems with coronavirus in China and recession in developed economies. At this point, market participants are not ready to focus on the Russian oil price cap story.
However, the situation may change quickly as the price cap mechanism will be implemented on December 5. The price cap itself will serve as an important catalyst for the oil market.
In case the price cap is within the previously discussed $60 – $65 range, traders may view it as a bearish sign, as such a price cap could provide an opportunity to keep all Russian oil in the market even if Russia formally rejects the price cap mechanism.
However, if the price cap is aggressive (for example, $40 – $50), the announcement may serve as a significant bullish catalyst for oil markets as it will be obvious that Russia would gladly take some of its oil out of the market to provide additional support to oil prices and try to hurt G7 countries.
we may see a divergence before this expected bullish move.
we should wait for confirmation e.g. above ema200 to get into trade.
fundamental:
The market is worried that demand will fall due to problems with coronavirus in China and recession in developed economies. At this point, market participants are not ready to focus on the Russian oil price cap story.
However, the situation may change quickly as the price cap mechanism will be implemented on December 5. The price cap itself will serve as an important catalyst for the oil market.
In case the price cap is within the previously discussed $60 – $65 range, traders may view it as a bearish sign, as such a price cap could provide an opportunity to keep all Russian oil in the market even if Russia formally rejects the price cap mechanism.
However, if the price cap is aggressive (for example, $40 – $50), the announcement may serve as a significant bullish catalyst for oil markets as it will be obvious that Russia would gladly take some of its oil out of the market to provide additional support to oil prices and try to hurt G7 countries.
Comment:
G-7 plans to announce their Russian oil price cap next Wednesday, although the timing of the release is fluid. The price cap seeks to knee-cap Russian oil sales by banning G-7 companies from providing the shipping and related services such as insurance needed to ship Russian oil anywhere in the world unless that oil is sold below the cap price. G-7 countries are seeking to reduce the amount of revenue that Russia earns from oil sales to reduce the amount of funding it has available for its invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that the cap is due to come into force for new bookings after December 5. The price cap embargo should be supportive for global oil prices since it is likely to crimp Russian oil exports and reduce the supply of world oil.
Comment:
For weeks, supply concerns had been propping up prices, but sentiment shifted throughout the week on renewed demand worries, which started with the bearish situation in China as COVID restrictions dampened nearly all hopes for a year-end rally.
Along with more expected rate hikes from the Fed, the weak Chinese demand fueled recession concerns even with the tightening of supply by OPEC+ and the European Union embargo of Russian oil in December.
Additionally, higher interest rates means a stronger U.S. Dollar, which tends to lead to lower foreign demand of dollar-denominated crude oil.
Along with more expected rate hikes from the Fed, the weak Chinese demand fueled recession concerns even with the tightening of supply by OPEC+ and the European Union embargo of Russian oil in December.
Additionally, higher interest rates means a stronger U.S. Dollar, which tends to lead to lower foreign demand of dollar-denominated crude oil.
Comment:
harmonic pattern and wolfe wave and RSI divergence
