AndyM
Short

Crude to start w5 decline soon, SPX getting ready

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1312 4 16
Hi All,

Given the size of the recent upswing in Crude I do believe we are dealing with w4 of the ending diagonal , and this wave is to be finished early next week. I expect therefore more decline in Crude in w5 and in SPX             of course (Crude will go down together with SPX             ). The comparison of SPX             vs Crude in Aug showed that SPX             made its largest decline during w5 of Crude decline. This means that SPX             investors resist the selling pressure to the latest possible stage, but once the resistance is over, a substantiaion sell-off happens.

So, next two week:
1) More decline in Crude
2) More decline in SPX            

Also, more decline in Gold             and Silver             in order to complete their own ending diagonals. I have some doubts but I suspect that metals may rebound earlier than Crude.

Watch out: the next two weeks will offer some very sizeable movements and some extremely important reversals will occur at the end, all of which will set the beginning of new multi-month trends. Pay attention, stay focused, use all opportunities for profit!
Nice Andy. I'm hoping you are going to nail this. What i'm wondering about Andy is that if oil (commodity) goes to 35 then CRB will make lower low and so will gold make lower low from here at 1070. Then you have SPX going down too i saw. So i'm wondering if oil to go down to 35 then maybe gold's current bear flag i see and it's flag height to 960-980?
I can't imagine gold going up first before and oil going lower while SPX is correcting also. Thoughts?
Reply
Gold is more in sync with the dollar, while Crude is very tightly correlated with SPX. Slightly different price actions are possible in DXY and SPX, so the timings for Crude and Gold/Silver to rebound can be different. But I agree that the once we have the touchdown and rebound both will go up approx within the same time frames.
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Ranngo AndyM
Thanks Andy. Lately when spx been going down so was gold but i know they usually should be inversely correlated. You think 960 on gold is too far for wave 5 to stretch?
I'm thinking the bear should end in dramatic violent action to the downside so commercial can load up at lowest best price possible. Just thinking 60 from here would not cut it but wanted to get your opinion on it. I was thinking another 100 points from here?
Reply
you are right it looks like we still have some room to go south but as you illustrate elliot wave count, you know the Elliot theory says first wave reversal rarely obvious at its inception, the fundamental news is almost universally negative, the economy does not look good.
Based on elliot theory i would love to see volume picks up to give some alert, and watch that 40.40 level which represent the recent low and 37.50 level which represent the major low
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