captain_smollett
Long

Oil. Are we cheap or expensive? I´d say cheap

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
230 4 7
My version of Oil             evolution till the end of the year.

Target of 60 USD looks pretty realistic, specially, knowing that supply from Iran develops really slowly, US production is falling and oil             import is growing, China increases oil             importation and will do so until 2018. Plus, not many people are not talking about it yet but India has to be taken into account as they are ready to step in as an important player.

Doha:

First option: light agreement version. (70% of probability)
"We´ve set all important points, Russia and SA will not increase their production further but we do not repond for the rest. Both Russia and SA will closely monitor the situation and take necessary measures in real time. OPEC meeting in June will clarify the situation further. Russia will be invited".

Second option: strong agreement and full understanding. (10% of probabilty)
Russia and OPEC agreed to freeze the production on January levels and agreed all necessary points to start reducing the production in June. To be formalized in June OPEC + Russia meeting.

Third option no agreement at all: (20% of probability)
We couldn´t find any understading and from now moving on everybody is on its own. Maybe we will re-start conversations on June

If we are down on Doha and the quote set new lows, will buy as much as I can.
Comment: Third option in play. Expecting prices to fall this week, WTI may reach 32 figures
Comment: Still expecting a short week and waiting until 40.40 figures to go short
Comment: Bullish scenario is developing explosively. If you haven't entered long yesterday, consider finding an entry point after a roll forward
Comment: So, welcome to a Bull Run! =) Targeting 55-58 now. Looking for an entry point tomorrow
Comment: So, it is almost official: we were cheap. At least, that is what the market considers. All Doha stuff was obviously a farce where SA´s Deputy Crown Prince introduced himself as a person deal with for the nearest future.

If the FED doesn´t bring us any surprise which may result in a short term decline in commodities, I post in comments my forecast for Oil prices based on Wave analysis and Fibo retracements. Hope it accomplishes to the cent as I will definitely invest on it =)
Comment: This chart is dedicated to all those who keep saying that oil prices cannot be predicted!


Our battleplan for the month of May I Believe
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Many thanks for your analysis, Sir! To be taken into account
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