captain_smollett
Short

USOIL. Five technicals against oil for next week

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
396 3 11
1) Double-top formed between March, 21st and April             , 12th:
- V-form? Check
- Set new highs? Check
- Failed to close above previous high? Check
2) Bearish divergence on Daily graphics both for MACD and RSI . Actually, looks like it has already started to develop
3) Failed to hold Daily 200 MA. Happens both on Brent and WTI
4) Lower highs and lower lows for 3 days in a row. Downward movement, targeting 38.2 Fibo between local low and local high.
5) Expiration. Both Brent and WTI futures will be rolled forward to June contracts next week. Normally, old contracts are abandoned around 1 or 2 days before the expiration, then it is exactly Monday, Tuesday (WTI rolled forward on Tuesday after close) and Wednesday (Brent rolled forward after close)

Add to this all "fundamental factors", growing uncertancy about Doha show...

Will it go down? We will see on Monday.

By the way, on Thursday, after a bearish movement on the first two-three days, oil             can start to grow back and this time the targets are around 50-60 figures.
Comment: Market shown itself today but expiration works in our favor. The gap hasn´t closed yet therefore I have a delayed short order set to 40.40.

I´m pretty sure today´s growth was limited by due expiration.
Trade closed manually: Shorted at 40.50, closed at 40. Let's see the closing today and tomorrow but everyone is buying it on an expiration day.

Means only one thing: according to the market, oil is very cheap right now. Considering longs after Brent rolls forward tomorrows
Comment: Expected much more from Oil. Will try it tomorrow, comments below
Trade closed manually: Shorted at 44, closed at 43.50 and then... IT came =)
snapshot

Main reason for shorting: although the contracts are rolled forward overnight, the price failed to close over 200 MA. Whatever happens at Kuwait, it won´t take long to solve. Plus, we have ECB, BOJ and FED incoming. Plus Obama visits Saudi Arabia tomorrow and weird things may come out from this visit.... Keep monitoring the intraday and check for trading signals!
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snapshot


The play for tomorrow: shorting USOIL but the ending target is for next week. Mind rolling forward to new contracts. Will be checking the intraday for a market entry
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poop

http://www.investing.com/indices/tasi
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