USOIL: Top is probably in

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
I've shorted at the price on chart, as announced at Tim West's KHL chatroom today.
Seems like the top is in for a few months, probably for the year.
We can enter short at market if not in, but keep a wide stop, or add (or wait to enter) if we hit 46.66 today.


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Link to Tim West's chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Comment: The 2nd order below is cancelled, I'll share a new order to add near today's close.
Comment: Reshorted under yesterday's open.
Could you clarify your reasoning here? Why do you think it is top? Thanks.
Yes, it is near 50 USD, as was previous top. But why not to wait when it crosses EMA 10 or EMA 20, to enter short.
Hi, I don't use EMAs at all.
It's the same reasoning that made me buy USDCAD here:
USDCAD: Bottom

It's called 'time at mode', a prop trading method.
xiiimik IvanLabrie
Impressive. You entered 1-2 days before a massive move up. I expected this move based on US dollar index at that time. But here you had another signals, which I am not quite understand.
Just one question. That reasoning in your USDCAD post, does it rely on US dollar index?
+1 Reply
No, the DXY in my opinion isn't too useful to forecast anything other than itself.
The euro and yen weights distort price action in emerging market currencies. Those have more impact, why I prefer the trade weighted dollar index (I posted 2 charts on it, and it helped pinpoint the bottom in all dollar pairs).
I derived this conclusion from the price level being hit by oil, and also by usdcad.
franciskim PRO IvanLabrie
Hi Ivan, I've researched time at mode and it seems to be trend continuation and not reversal, please correct me if I am wrong. I do agree that the top is in though:
Oil Rejected @ Fib Confluence
IvanLabrie PRO franciskim
The technique is good to find tops/bottoms and trend continuation too. We'll be sure once we see a range expansion down day next week, that closes near the lows.
+1 Reply
i guess you got stopped out. when it hit $49
IvanLabrie PRO SgtHartman
Hi, no, not really. We have some support still due to the Niger Delta Avengers...It won't last long though.
The 2nd order wasn't filled, and the first is still valid.
SgtHartman IvanLabrie
The disruptions won't last long? You mention Nigerian rebels, dont you think the bigger elephant in the room to domestic wti is the fire that shut in 1 million barrels of canadian crude flowing? Don't you think when inventory from the oilsands sands shortages starts getting tallied at the hub, that will instantly create concern and add to the wti price. Oil sands travels at 7mph in the pipe, so the full effect of the fires hasn't even hit the markets? That should start showing up in about a month. I cant see going short in the next month. Too many drawdowns and shortages, never mind the potential for other international disruptions outside of those 2 big ones.
IvanLabrie PRO SgtHartman
You're right, that won't kick in for a month at least.
I think the timing is right to short oil, but I am not suggesting go full risk off, and short equities either.
Most people are too bearish, but fail to see that we'll probably see a rally for the rest of the year after some brief correction now.
USDCAD and lumber have given good indications that oil is topped, as well as the technical chart in oil monthly.
Not the time to long more oil yet, that is clear.
Thanks for the comments, cheers!
It's way too early to call a yearly top in oil at this level.
And shorts are still extremely dangerous here.
IvanLabrie PRO chartwatchers
Or maybe not.
Let's agree to disagree.
Good news for oil bears: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-21/suncor-planning-oil-sands-re-entry-as-evacuation-order-lifted
IvanLabrie PRO franciskim
Seems reasonable to expect a resumption of the downtrend. It was something I expected when hitting monthly resistance. It takes time to form a top after an extended trend, but the resistance is clearly acting.

Brent Crude suggesting we you could get another chance to sell at higher levels.
Let's see what happens later today, I'm short for now.
Good luck!
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