Trendhopper
Long

USOIL...The 5th Wave, 0.38 Fib, Butterfly & trendline

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Reasons to long at 45.25 (point C on butterfly )....take profit 58-59
Comment:
snapshot


We have a bullish butterfly pattern forming..will extend to either 46.06 (1.272%) or 45.90 (1.618%) and should forrm a head....go .Long at one of these points.....may not go as far as 45.25 as trendline and this pattern will push price up....I will try and work out which price butterfly will go to....
Comment: Butterfly invalid....bottom is probably between 46.00 and 46.20.....I think price will test this zone before going up....
Trade active: bought at 46.25.....SL 45.80.....TP 58-59
Trade closed: stop reached: Rookie error.. 45.80 is strong support....so at the best place to by....unlikely to go below this and lucky if it retests it...im convinced we are at bottom of wave 4...market might wait for NFP data which will likely boost price, this is what chart says
Comment: opened another long position at 46.23.....right shoulder...trendline tested...support tested...
Trade active: 45.25!......another .long position opened....
Comment:
snapshot


Price will reverse at one of these levels..
Trade active: another long entry at 44.90...TP 58-59

its oversold..4hr RSI is just 20........
Comment: Don't be surprised if we finish day @ 45.80......then we have a lovely daily reversal candle....!!!!
Comment:
snapshot


You may think this is wishful thinking...but I've seen it many times...
Comment:
snapshot


This is a 3 wave impulse move down.....im calling the bottom at 43.50...the blue line.....if it gets this far!!! I will buy here...and close the long at 46.50...see point C, this is potential Gartley pattern, strong resistance level and downtrend line....
Trade active: entered a long at 43.56.....its due a big bounce up now...SL...43.20...TP 46.80 area .see structure support to the left
Comment: Price will probably form a long bottom now until tomorrows (Non Farm Payroll data release 1.30 pm GMT.).....same for GOLD.....best to look at currencies that don't involve the dollar for any opportuniities between now and then
Thanks for the update. I haven't been able to run an Elliott-analysis myself. Any bottom should be confirmed by subsequent correction, before I move in (ERX & UWTI).
Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
That is sensible....difficulty with wave patterns like this is they don't offer many pullback opportunities for entry...and no trader wants to chase price so result is you get locked out waiting for the pullback that never comes....you can see this in the A wave correction and pretty much all of wave 3 up......this is where trendiness/fibs can be a good guide for entry
+1 Reply
I am in, tight stop loss, you never know.
Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
It will reverse.....emotions play a big part in trading...a lot of people will give up and then you turn your back and price will be testing previous resistance at 45.80.....Im still holding my longs......Ive done well on GBP today so this is financing it!
+1 Reply
I will exit at 44.13 (50% retr.) 44.14 (61.8% retr.)... :)
Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
yes thats the .618 retracement.. and 50% if measuring from 39.00.....I placed a short at 45.00 as insurance.....if a trade isn't working out, either quit with small loss, or if you think a bounce will come, insure yourself....the 43.00 level is pivotal.. we forget the wave 5 if we close below this level....then it will follow a bat pattern to 40 area...and then bounce up some from there.....but I still see it coming up and going to at least 46.80 resistance personally...probably now after NFP data 1.30pm tomorrow..
Reply
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